Live Play Data

Ferrous Lake

Land · Secrets of Strixhaven Commander (SOC)

Deck Inclusion

Games Tracked

121

Decks Running

Median Cast Turn

Drawn → Played

68%

Ferrous Lake appears in 3.4% of tracked Commander decks, but when it hits the battlefield its owners win 60% of the time, a +20 point gap over games where it stayed in the library.

Ferrous Lake is a niche {U}{R} dual land from Secrets of Strixhaven Commander, and Playgroup Live's data reflects exactly that: a 3.4% inclusion rate across 1,932 tracked decks. Every deck running it has a reason to be there.

The win-rate split is the headline. Games where Ferrous Lake was cast finished with its owner winning 60% of the time (12 of 20 casts). Games where it sat in the library all game ended in a win only 40% of the time. That +20.2-point delta is a directional signal worth noting, though with only 20 cast observations it would be premature to call it conclusive. Baseline win rate in a 4-player pod is ~25%, so both numbers are elevated, which reflects that the decks running this card tend to be well-tuned {U}{R} builds. Of the 28 instances drawn, 71% were cast before the game ended. 55% of those were played the same turn they were drawn, suggesting players treat it as an immediate tempo piece rather than a card to hold.

Adoption is concentrated in Izzet commanders. Rootha, Mastering the Moment leads the field with 25 decks, followed by Me, the Immortal and Galazeth Prismari. Ferrous Lake is not a staple chasing every {U}{R} shell; it is a deliberate inclusion in decks that want a reliable two-color rock land on a fixed activation cost.

At a glance

3.4% inclusion rate across tracked Commander decks
71% of drawn Ferrous Lakes are cast before the game ends
60% win rate in games where it was cast (20 observations)
+20.2 percentage-point win-rate delta vs. games where it stayed in the library
T4 median first-cast turn
90% battlefield stickiness once it resolves

First-cast turn

n=21

10%

14%

38%

T6-9

T10+

Median 4 P25 3 · P75 6 · max 11

Cast same turn as drawn 52%

The "good card" funnel

124 brought

Brought to game

124

Ever drawn

Reached battlefield

Still on board at game end

68%

Of 113 Ferrous Lakes brought to games, 28 were drawn and 20 of those were cast, a tight funnel that reflects its niche adoption and the reality that most copies simply never surface in a given game.

+18.7pp

Players who cast this card win 57% of the time (n=21) , vs 38% when it never left the library (n=91).

Final zone distribution

124 instances

73.4%

Library

15.3%

Battlefield

4.8%

Graveyard

0.8%

Exile

83 of 113 Ferrous Lakes never left the library, the expected outcome for a 3.4%-inclusion singleton in a 100-card deck. The 18 that ended on the battlefield confirm it sticks once played.

Top commanders running this card

by deck count

Rootha, Mastering the Moment alone accounts for 25 of the 66 decks running Ferrous Lake, signaling that inclusion is heavily concentrated in dedicated Izzet shells rather than spread evenly across the color pair.

Frequently Asked

How often is Ferrous Lake drawn in a Commander game? ▾

Across 113 deck-participations tracked, Ferrous Lake was drawn in roughly 25% of instances. That is consistent with what you would expect from a singleton in a 100-card deck. Of the 28 times it reached a player's hand, 20 were cast before the game ended, a 71% draw-to-play rate.

What does the +20-point win-rate delta actually mean? ▾

Games where Ferrous Lake was cast ended in a win for its controller 60% of the time. Games where it never left the library finished in a win only 40% of the time. That 20-point gap is an early directional signal that the card contributes positively to winning lines. With 20 cast observations and 83 library observations, we are not calling it statistically conclusive, but the direction is consistent.

What turn does Ferrous Lake typically enter the battlefield? ▾

The median first-cast turn is 4, with the interquartile range sitting between turns 3 and 6. Two casts happened on turn 1, likely from opening-hand keeps. The distribution is fairly flat across turns 2 through 7, reflecting that this is a land players fit into gaps rather than a card they race to deploy.

Is Ferrous Lake legal in Commander? ▾

Yes. Ferrous Lake is legal in Commander and Oathbreaker. It is not legal in Standard, Pioneer, Modern, Pauper, Historic, or Alchemy. Its color identity is {U}{R}, so it can only appear in decks whose commander includes both blue and red, or encompasses those colors in a three-plus color identity.

Why does Ferrous Lake see play only in specific decks? ▾

Ferrous Lake costs {1} plus a tap to produce {U}{R}, which is a real cost compared to a basic land. It earns its slot in decks that specifically need the dual color fixing and have low competition from better dual lands like Volcanic Island or Steam Vents. The Playgroup Live data shows it clustered heavily around Izzet commanders like Rootha and Galazeth Prismari, exactly the builds that lean on every {U}{R} fixing option available.

How sticky is Ferrous Lake once it resolves? ▾

90% battlefield stickiness. Of the 20 casts tracked, the overwhelming majority were still on the battlefield when the game ended. That is not surprising for a land, since spot removal and bounce spells almost never target lands in Commander, but it does confirm the card provides durable, lasting mana fixing once it resolves.