Live Play Data

Ferrous Lake

Land · Secrets of Strixhaven Commander (SOC)

Live Inclusion

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Times Brought

667

Decks Running

329

Median Cast Turn

Drawn → Played

74%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

Ferrous Lake appears in 8% of tracked Izzet-eligible decks on Playgroup Live, with 74% of drawn copies reaching the battlefield and a median first-cast turn of 4.

Ferrous Lake is a niche dual land that taps for {U}{R} at the cost of 1 mana, and the play data reflects its role as a role-player rather than a staple. It sits in 8% of the 4174 tracked decks, appearing almost exclusively in red-blue or red-blue-white builds where affordable dual mana matters.

When Ferrous Lake reaches a hand, 74% of those copies were played before the game ended. Median first-cast turn is 4, but the distribution is wide, from early openers to mid-game land drops well into turn 8. That spread is expected for a land that costs an additional mana to activate: players who open it early may still hold the land drop for a turn with more productive plays available.

The data is well-distributed across 306 distinct players, with no single contributor representing more than a small fraction of the observations. Rootha, Mastering the Moment decks lead the commander breakdown by volume, which tracks with Ferrous Lake's color identity fitting that pairing cleanly.

At a glance

8% of tracked Commander decks include Ferrous Lake
25% draw rate across tracked games
74% of drawn copies were played before the game ended
T4 median first-cast turn
91% battlefield stickiness once the land enters play
306 distinct players contributing data, a well-spread sample

First-cast turn

n=125

12%

22%

15%

16%

23%

T6-9

T10+

Median 4 P25 2 · P75 6 · max 12

Cast same turn as drawn 37%

The "good card" funnel

667 brought · 306 players

Brought to game

667

Ever drawn

169

Reached battlefield

125

Still on board at game end

114

74%

Of 667 Ferrous Lakes brought to games, 169 were drawn, 125 of those were played, and the overwhelming majority remained on the battlefield through end of game.

≥ -3.9pp

Players who cast this card win 32% of the time (n=121) , vs 27% when it never left the library (n=427).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 40% (n=41) — about the same as leaving it in the library. Those players survived long enough to draw it, so the gap above is about the card resolving, not just about surviving.

Observed gap +4.9pp; 95% confidence interval -3.9pp to +13.6pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

186 instances

2.7%

Library

61.3%

Battlefield

15.1%

Graveyard

3.8%

Exile

Most Ferrous Lakes never leave the library, a structural fact of 100-card singleton rather than a sign of poor performance. Of observed instances, the battlefield is the most common final resting place, reflecting that land permanents are rarely removed.

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

1 Rootha, Mastering the Moment 57 decks
2 Zinnia, Valley's Voice 37 decks
3 Shiko and Narset, Unified 18 decks
4 Vivi Ornitier 18 decks
5 Dr. Madison Li 14 decks
6 Ovika, Enigma Goliath 10 decks
7 Ashling, Rekindled // Ashling, Rimebound 9 decks
8 Fire Lord Azula 8 decks
9 Liberty Prime, Recharged 6 decks
10 Muddle, the Ever-Changing 6 decks

Rootha, Mastering the Moment commands the largest share by deck count, but the list spans a dozen distinct commanders across pure Izzet and Jeskai builds, showing Ferrous Lake earns its slot across multiple archetypes rather than belonging to one.

Card text

Ferrous Lake

Land

: Add

Secrets of Strixhaven Commander (SOC) · Rare · Illustrated by Grady Frederick

Frequently Asked

How often is Ferrous Lake drawn in a Commander game?

Across 649 tracked games where Ferrous Lake was in the deck, it was drawn 25% of the time. That is consistent with what you expect from a singleton in a 100-card deck. Of 169 instances that reached a player's hand, 74% were played before the game ended.

What turn does Ferrous Lake typically come down?

The median first-cast turn is 4, with the 25th percentile landing on turn 2 and the 75th percentile on turn 6. The distribution is notably wide: some copies hit the table on turn 1 in opening hands, while others arrive in the late game as a utility land drop. The extra 1-mana activation cost means players sometimes sequence it around other plays even when it is in hand early.

Is Ferrous Lake legal in Commander?

Yes. Ferrous Lake is legal in Commander, Duel Commander, Legacy, Vintage, and Oathbreaker. It is not legal in Modern, Pioneer, Standard, Pauper, or Brawl. Its color identity is red and blue, so it fits into any Commander deck whose commander has a color identity containing both {R} and {U}.

Does casting Ferrous Lake correlate with winning?

The multiplayer data shows 32% win rate in games where Ferrous Lake reached the battlefield, compared to 27% in games where it stayed in the library. The raw delta is directional but the confidence interval crosses zero on this sample size, so treat it as an early signal rather than a proven edge. Ferrous Lake is a mana-fixing piece, and its value flows through the spells it enables rather than any direct impact.

Which commanders run Ferrous Lake most often?

Rootha, Mastering the Moment leads by a wide margin in absolute deck count, followed by Zinnia, Valley's Voice and Vivi Ornitier. The pattern is consistent: nearly all top commanders share a pure or partial red-blue color identity. Ferrous Lake is essentially an Izzet land, and the data reflects that specialization clearly.

How concentrated is Ferrous Lake's data across players?

The dataset spans 306 distinct players, with no single contributor accounting for more than a small share of total instances. That spread is a meaningful quality signal: the draw and cast patterns here represent broad play behavior rather than one prolific player's habits. Both the multiplayer and duel Commander buckets show similar inclusion and draw rates, which adds to the consistency of the picture.