Live Play Data

Gut Shot

· Instant · Modern Masters 2015 (MM2)

Live Inclusion

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Times Brought

433

Decks Running

209

Median Cast Turn

Drawn → Played

67%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

First-cast turn

n=79

22%

24%

35%

T6-9

T10+

Median 5 P25 4 · P75 6 · max 14

On curve 4% (3 / 79 cast on T1) Cast same turn as drawn 40%

The "good card" funnel

433 brought · 191 players

Brought to game

433

Ever drawn

118

Reached battlefield

Still on board at game end

≥ -5.4pp

Players who cast this card win 37% of the time (n=69) , vs 30% when it never left the library (n=252).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 33% (n=35).

Read this as correlation, not as the card's contribution. Casting a card means you lived long enough to cast it, so this gap widens with mana value across every card we track.

Observed gap +6.7pp; 95% confidence interval -5.4pp to +18.8pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

136 instances

7.4%

Library

5.1%

Battlefield

57.4%

Graveyard

12.5%

Exile

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

1 Ghyrson Starn, Kelermorph 37 decks
2 Vivi Ornitier 35 decks
3 Bruce Banner // The Incredible Hulk 10 decks
4 Krark, the Thumbless 9 decks
5 Ojer Axonil, Deepest Might // Temple of Power 9 decks
6 Crystal, Inhuman Princess 8 decks
7 Ral, Monsoon Mage // Ral, Leyline Prodigy 8 decks
8 Flubs, the Fool 7 decks
9 Ob Nixilis, Captive Kingpin 7 decks
10 Judith, Carnage Connoisseur 6 decks

Card text

Gut Shot

Instant

(

can be paid with either {R}

or 2 life.) Gut Shot deals 1 damage to any target.

Modern Masters 2015 (MM2) · Common · Illustrated by Greg Staples

Frequently Asked

Why isn't there more data on this card?

Playgroup Live collects per-card gameplay data from real Commander games. Play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games, and the full charts need a sample of at least 25 observed games that is not dominated by a single pilot. Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.

How is Playgroup Live card data collected?

Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting. Playgroup has recorded 710,000+ Commander games overall, and this card-level play data comes from the Playgroup Live seats playing virtual cards, a subset of that corpus.