Live Play Data

Hell to Pay

· Sorcery · Outlaws of Thunder Junction (OTJ)

Live Inclusion

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Times Brought

573

Decks Running

281

Median Cast Turn

6.0

Drawn → Played

64%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

First-cast turn

n=64

19%

61%

T6-9

T10+

Median 6.0 P25 5 · P75 8 · max 12

Cast same turn as drawn 25%

The "good card" funnel

573 brought · 260 players

Brought to game

573

Ever drawn

100

Reached battlefield

Still on board at game end

≥ -14.3pp

Players who cast this card win 21% of the time (n=59) , vs 24% when it never left the library (n=398).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 20% (n=31).

Read this as correlation, not as the card's contribution. Casting a card means you lived long enough to cast it, so this gap widens with mana value across every card we track.

Observed gap -3.1pp; 95% confidence interval -14.3pp to +8.1pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

118 instances

1.7%

Library

2.5%

Battlefield

61.0%

Graveyard

10.2%

Exile

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

Card text

Hell to Pay

Sorcery

Hell to Pay deals X damage to target creature. Create a number of tapped Treasure tokens equal to the amount of excess damage dealt to that creature this way.

Outlaws of Thunder Junction (OTJ) · Rare · Illustrated by Liiga Smilshkalne

Frequently Asked

Why isn't there more data on this card?

Playgroup Live collects per-card gameplay data from real Commander games. Play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games, and the full charts need a sample of at least 25 observed games that is not dominated by a single pilot. Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.

How is Playgroup Live card data collected?

Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting. Playgroup has recorded 760,000+ Commander games overall, and this card-level play data comes from the Playgroup Live seats playing virtual cards, a subset of that corpus.