Live Play Data

Hell to Pay

· Sorcery · Outlaws of Thunder Junction (OTJ)

Live Inclusion

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Times Brought

437

Decks Running

226

Median Cast Turn

6.0

Drawn → Played

63%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

First-cast turn

n=44

20%

64%

T6-9

T10+

Median 6.0 P25 5 · P75 8 · max 12

Cast same turn as drawn 22%

The "good card" funnel

437 brought · 208 players

Brought to game

437

Ever drawn

Reached battlefield

Still on board at game end

≥ -17.1pp

Players who cast this card win 22% of the time (n=41) , vs 25% when it never left the library (n=309).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 18% (n=21).

Read this as correlation, not as the card's contribution. Casting a card means you lived long enough to cast it, so this gap widens with mana value across every card we track.

Observed gap -3.3pp; 95% confidence interval -17.1pp to +10.5pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

84 instances

1.2%

Library

1.2%

Battlefield

64.3%

Graveyard

10.7%

Exile

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

Card text

Hell to Pay

Sorcery

Hell to Pay deals X damage to target creature. Create a number of tapped Treasure tokens equal to the amount of excess damage dealt to that creature this way.

Outlaws of Thunder Junction (OTJ) · Rare · Illustrated by Liiga Smilshkalne

Frequently Asked

Why isn't there more data on this card?

Playgroup Live collects per-card gameplay data from real Commander games. Play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games, and the full charts need a sample of at least 25 observed games that is not dominated by a single pilot. Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.

How is Playgroup Live card data collected?

Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting. Playgroup has recorded 720,000+ Commander games overall, and this card-level play data comes from the Playgroup Live seats playing virtual cards, a subset of that corpus.