Live Play Data

Humble Defector

· Creature — Human Rogue · Outlaws of Thunder Junction Commander (OTC)

Live Inclusion

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Times Brought

769

Decks Running

407

Median Cast Turn

4.0

Drawn → Played

69%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

First-cast turn

n=154

10%

18%

12%

13%

31%

T6-9

T10+

Median 4.0 P25 2 · P75 7 · max 14

On curve 27% (27 / 154 cast on T2) Cast same turn as drawn 39%

The "good card" funnel

769 brought · 363 players

Brought to game

769

Ever drawn

223

Reached battlefield

154

Still on board at game end

Once cast, 36% of this card is still on the battlefield at game end. This reflects how often it survives removal, not just whether it's a permanent.

≥ -4.3pp

Players who cast this card win 22% of the time (n=137) , vs 19% when it never left the library (n=463).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 20% (n=63).

Read this as correlation, not as the card's contribution. Casting a card means you lived long enough to cast it, so this gap widens with mana value across every card we track.

Observed gap +3.4pp; 95% confidence interval -4.3pp to +11.1pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

251 instances

3.2%

Library

22.3%

Battlefield

40.2%

Graveyard

9.2%

Exile

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

Card text

Humble Defector

Creature — Human Rogue

: Draw two cards. Target opponent gains control of this creature. Activate only during your turn.

2 / 1

Outlaws of Thunder Junction Commander (OTC) · Uncommon · Illustrated by Slawomir Maniak

Frequently Asked

Why isn't there more data on this card?

Playgroup Live collects per-card gameplay data from real Commander games. Play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games, and the full charts need a sample of at least 25 observed games that is not dominated by a single pilot. Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.

How is Playgroup Live card data collected?

Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting. Playgroup has recorded 710,000+ Commander games overall, and this card-level play data comes from the Playgroup Live seats playing virtual cards, a subset of that corpus.