Live Play Data

Humble Defector

· Creature — Human Rogue · Outlaws of Thunder Junction Commander (OTC)

Live Inclusion

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Times Brought

524

Decks Running

287

Median Cast Turn

4.0

Drawn → Played

71%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

First-cast turn

n=104

14%

13%

15%

16%

26%

T6-9

T10+

Median 4.0 P25 3 · P75 7 · max 14

On curve 23% (15 / 104 cast on T2) Cast same turn as drawn 37%

The "good card" funnel

524 brought · 262 players

Brought to game

524

Ever drawn

147

Reached battlefield

104

Still on board at game end

Once cast, 33% of this card is still on the battlefield at game end. This reflects how often it survives removal, not just whether it's a permanent.

≥ -9.1pp

Players who cast this card win 20% of the time (n=93) , vs 20% when it never left the library (n=326).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 25% (n=38).

Read this as correlation, not as the card's contribution. Casting a card means you lived long enough to cast it, so this gap widens with mana value across every card we track.

Observed gap +0.0pp; 95% confidence interval -9.1pp to +9.1pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

167 instances

4.2%

Library

20.4%

Battlefield

43.7%

Graveyard

7.8%

Exile

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

Card text

Humble Defector

Creature — Human Rogue

: Draw two cards. Target opponent gains control of this creature. Activate only during your turn.

2 / 1

Outlaws of Thunder Junction Commander (OTC) · Uncommon · Illustrated by Slawomir Maniak

Frequently Asked

Why isn't there more data on this card?

Playgroup Live collects per-card gameplay data from real Commander games. Play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games, and the full charts need a sample of at least 25 observed games that is not dominated by a single pilot. Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.

How is Playgroup Live card data collected?

Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting. Playgroup has recorded 680,000+ Commander games overall, and this card-level play data comes from the Playgroup Live subset of that corpus.