Live Play Data

Incubation Druid

· Creature — Elf Druid · March of the Machine Commander (MOC)

Live Inclusion

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Times Brought

988

Decks Running

501

Median Cast Turn

4.0

Drawn → Played

71%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

5% of tracked Commander decks run Incubation Druid, and 71% of drawn copies reach the battlefield, with a median first-cast turn of 4.0.

Incubation Druid sits in 5% of the 10195 Commander decks tracked on Playgroup Live. It appears in 501 distinct lists, with 988 total game participations recorded so far.

The core case for the card is tempo. Cast on turn 2 or 3 and then adapted by turn 5 or 6, it flips from a mana-neutral fixer into a three-mana engine that can single-handedly fund an X-spell or double-spell turn. The median first-cast turn of 4.0 shows it lands early more often than not, and 71% of drawn copies proceed to the battlefield before the game ends. That figure reflects both player intent and game length: copies drawn late sometimes simply run out of time.

The commander spread is notably wide. No single commander dominates; Tidus, Yuna's Guardian leads in raw deck count but the card also turns up in Elf typal lists, +1/+1 counter shells, and Simic goodstuff piles. That breadth is a sign Incubation Druid is valued for its mana acceleration as a general-purpose tool rather than one narrow combo package.

At a glance

5% of tracked Commander decks include Incubation Druid
71% of drawn copies reach the battlefield before the game ends
T4.0 median first-cast turn across tracked games
59% battlefield stickiness once successfully cast
439 distinct players have brought it to a tracked game, spreading the data broadly

First-cast turn

n=174

17%

15%

12%

18%

21%

T6-9

T10+

Median 4.0 P25 2 · P75 6 · max 15

On curve 26% (30 / 174 cast on T2) Cast same turn as drawn 39%

The "good card" funnel

988 brought · 439 players

Brought to game

988

Ever drawn

245

Reached battlefield

174

Still on board at game end

103

71%

Of 988 Incubation Druids brought to games, 245 were drawn, 174 of those were cast, and 59% of cast copies were still on the battlefield when the game ended.

≥ -0.8pp

Players who cast this card win 32% of the time (n=158) , vs 25% when it never left the library (n=643).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 35% (n=64) — about the same as leaving it in the library. Those players survived long enough to draw it, so the gap above is about the card resolving, not just about surviving.

Observed gap +6.7pp; 95% confidence interval -0.8pp to +14.2pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

266 instances

3.0%

Library

38.7%

Battlefield

30.5%

Graveyard

5.6%

Exile

Most Incubation Druids never leave the library, a structural fact of 100-card singleton rather than a knock on the card. Of copies that were cast, a meaningful share ended on the battlefield, but graveyard exits reflect how frequently opponents prioritize removing a mana dork before it can be adapted.

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

The commander list spans Simic, Naya, and mono-green shells rather than clustering in one archetype, which points to Incubation Druid being valued as a general mana-acceleration piece across a wide slice of green strategies.

Card text

Incubation Druid

Creature — Elf Druid

: Add one mana of any type that a land you control could produce. If this creature has a +1/+1 counter on it, add three mana of that type instead. {3}

: Adapt 3. (If this creature has no +1/+1 counters on it, put three +1/+1 counters on it.)

0 / 2

March of the Machine Commander (MOC) · Rare · Illustrated by Daniel Ljunggren

Frequently Asked

How often is Incubation Druid drawn in a Commander game?

Across 970 tracked games where Incubation Druid was in the deck, it was drawn 25% of the time. That is consistent with what you'd expect for a singleton in a 100-card deck. Of 245 instances that reached a player's hand, 71% were cast before the game concluded.

What turn does Incubation Druid usually get cast?

The median first-cast turn is 4.0. The distribution clusters toward turns 2 and 3 for copies drawn in the opening hand, then spreads across turns 5 through 8 for later draws. A mana value of 2 means it can come down on curve in the early game, and 26% of first casts land exactly on curve or earlier.

Does casting Incubation Druid correlate with winning?

In 158 participations where Incubation Druid reached the battlefield, the win rate was 32%. In 643 participations where it stayed in the library, the win rate was 25%. The delta is +6.7 percentage points. Given the sample size, treat this as a directional early signal rather than a conclusive effect: the confidence interval includes zero.

How sticky is Incubation Druid once it hits the battlefield?

59% of cast copies were still on the battlefield at end of game. That is lower than you'd see for a true pillar-of-the-deck artifact, which reflects how aggressively opponents will trade with or remove a mana dork that threatens to scale into a three-mana producer. Removal and combat are the main exits shown in the final zone data.

Is Incubation Druid legal in Commander?

Yes. Incubation Druid is legal and unrestricted in Commander. It is also legal in Legacy, Modern, Pioneer, Vintage, Historic, and several other formats. It has a green color identity, so it fits in any Commander deck running a green commander.

Which commanders most commonly run Incubation Druid?

Across 970 tracked games, the top commanders are spread across a range of Simic, Naya, and mono-green identities. Tidus, Yuna's Guardian leads in raw deck count, followed by Ms. Bumbleflower, Voja, Jaws of the Conclave, and Yuna, Grand Summoner. The spread across 439 unique players, with no single player exceeding 25% of all instances, suggests the data reflects genuine broad adoption rather than one prolific contributor skewing the numbers.