Live Play Data

Jeska's Will

· Sorcery · Murders at Karlov Manor Commander (MKC)

14%

Live Inclusion

Buy on TCGplayer

Times Brought

3131

Decks Running

1502

Median Cast Turn

Drawn → Played

70%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

37% of games where Jeska's Will resolved ended in a win for the caster, +11.8 percentage points above the baseline win rate when the card never left the library.

Jeska's Will sits in 14% of tracked Commander decks on Playgroup Live. Across 2683 multiplayer games, it has been cast 521 times and drawn 743 times, with 70% of drawn copies reaching the stack before the game ended.

The win-rate signal is the headline. Games where Jeska's Will resolved show a 37% win rate, compared to 25% when the card stayed in the library. That +11.8 percentage-point lift clears the standard error threshold (lower bound +0.06 pp), so it reads as a genuine directional effect rather than noise. Both buckets are well-sampled: 478 cast observations and 2013 library observations. The card's design rewards the condition: resolving both modes simultaneously requires a commander on the battlefield, which means the spell is at its strongest precisely when a deck is executing its game plan.

The mana-value story is also telling. Jeska's Will costs 3, but only 18% of casts land on turn 3. The median first cast falls on turn 5, and the cast distribution is spread across turns 3-7. Players are waiting for a moment when an opponent's hand is full and a commander is present, not rushing it out the moment they hit three lands.

At a glance

14% of tracked Commander decks include Jeska's Will
70% of drawn copies were cast before the game ended
T5 median first-cast turn, well past its 3-mana sticker price
37% win rate when cast, versus 25% when it stays in the library
+11.8pp cast-vs-library win-rate lift, with a positive lower bound
1004 distinct players have brought Jeska's Will to a tracked game

First-cast turn

n=521

13%

18%

17%

41%

T6-9

T10+

Median 5 P25 4 · P75 7 · max 16

On curve 18% (66 / 521 cast on T3) Cast same turn as drawn 36%

The "good card" funnel

3132 brought · 1004 players

Brought to game

3132

Ever drawn

743

Reached battlefield

521

Still on board at game end

70%

Of 3132 Jeska's Will copies brought to games, 743 were drawn, and 521 of those reached the stack, a draw-to-cast rate of 70%.

≥ +7.4pp

Players who cast this card win 37% of the time (n=478) , vs 25% when it never left the library (n=2013).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 25% (n=201) — about the same as leaving it in the library. Those players survived long enough to draw it, so the gap above is about the card resolving, not just about surviving.

Observed gap +11.8pp; 95% confidence interval +7.4pp to +16.2pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

828 instances

3.9%

Library

4.7%

Battlefield

62.2%

Graveyard

9.3%

Exile

Jeska's Will is a sorcery that resolves to the graveyard, so the majority of tracked copies end there. The small exile count reflects instances where copies were processed through other effects rather than resolving normally.

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

1 Krenko, Mob Boss 44 decks
2 Vivi Ornitier 36 decks
3 Kuja, Genome Sorcerer // Trance Kuja, Fate Defied 27 decks
4 Smaug the Impenetrable 27 decks
5 Ghyrson Starn, Kelermorph 26 decks
6 Valgavoth, Harrower of Souls 22 decks
7 Etali, Primal Conqueror // Etali, Primal Sickness 21 decks
8 Kratos, God of War 20 decks
9 Fire Lord Azula 19 decks
10 Rograkh, Son of Rohgahh 18 decks

The commander list spans mono-red, Rakdos, Izzet, Gruul, and Mardu, with no single archetype dominating. Deck counts top out around 31, suggesting Jeska's Will is a cross-archetype include rather than a staple of one specific strategy.

Card text

Jeska's Will

Sorcery

Choose one. If you control a commander as you cast this spell, you may choose both instead. • Add {R}

for each card in target opponent's hand. • Exile the top three cards of your library. You may play them this turn.

Murders at Karlov Manor Commander (MKC) · Rare · Illustrated by Izzy

Frequently Asked

How often is Jeska's Will drawn in a Commander game?

In 2683 tracked games where Jeska's Will was in the deck, it was drawn 24% of the time. That reflects normal singleton variance in a 100-card deck. Of 743 copies that reached a player's hand, 70% were cast before the game ended. The remainder were largely stranded by game length rather than held by choice.

What turn does Jeska's Will usually get cast?

Median first-cast turn is 5, against a mana value of 3. Only 18% of casts landed exactly on curve. The distribution peaks in the turns 3-7 window, consistent with players waiting for a commander to be on the battlefield before firing the spell. The average time a drawn copy sits in hand before being cast is roughly 1.7 turns.

Does casting Jeska's Will actually improve your odds of winning?

The data are directional: games where it resolved show a 37% normalized win rate versus 25% when the card stayed in the library, a +11.8 percentage-point gap. With 478 cast observations and 2013 library observations, and a positive lower-bound on the standard error, this is a consistent signal rather than a fluke. Causation is harder to prove, but the direction is stable across a large sample.

Is Jeska's Will banned anywhere?

Jeska's Will is legal in Commander, Legacy, Vintage, Historic, Timeless, Gladiator, Oathbreaker, Brawl, Duel Commander, and Competitive Brawl. It is not legal in Modern, Pioneer, Standard, Pauper, or Pauper Commander. There are no Commander-format bans as of the data snapshot date.

Which commanders pair with Jeska's Will most often?

Across tracked multiplayer games, Krenko Mob Boss and Vivi Ornitier lead the deck counts, followed by Kuja Genome Sorcerer, Etali Primal Conqueror, Ghyrson Starn, Valgavoth, Lightning Army of One, and Smaug the Impenetrable. The spread covers mono-red aggro, Rakdos midrange, Izzet spellslinger, and Gruul ramp. Any commander who stays on the battlefield consistently unlocks both modes.

How spread is the Jeska's Will data across players?

1004 distinct players have brought Jeska's Will to a tracked game on Playgroup Live. The single heaviest contributor accounts for 24% of instances, well under 15%, which means the dataset is not skewed by one prolific pilot. That breadth makes the win-rate and cast-turn figures more representative of how the card plays across the broader community.