Live Play Data

Lapse of Certainty

· Instant · Conflux (CON)

Live Inclusion

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Times Brought

176

Decks Running

Median Cast Turn

Drawn → Played

57%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

First-cast turn

n=23

13%

65%

T6-9

13%

T10+

Median 8 P25 6 · P75 9 · max 11

On curve 0% (0 / 23 cast on T3) Cast same turn as drawn 17%

The "good card" funnel

176 brought · 75 players

Brought to game

176

Ever drawn

Reached battlefield

Still on board at game end

≥ -22.0pp

Players who cast this card win 18% of the time (n=20) , vs 22% when it never left the library (n=116).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 23% (n=15).

Read this as correlation, not as the card's contribution. Casting a card means you lived long enough to cast it, so this gap widens with mana value across every card we track.

Observed gap -4.5pp; 95% confidence interval -22.0pp to +13.0pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

45 instances

4.4%

Library

2.2%

Battlefield

51.1%

Graveyard

11.1%

Exile

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

Card text

Lapse of Certainty

Instant

Counter target spell. If that spell is countered this way, put it on top of its owner's library instead of into that player's graveyard.

Conflux (CON) · Common · Illustrated by Anthony Francisco

Frequently Asked

Why isn't there more data on this card?

Playgroup Live collects per-card gameplay data from real Commander games. Play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games, and the full charts need a sample of at least 25 observed games that is not dominated by a single pilot. Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.

How is Playgroup Live card data collected?

Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting. Playgroup has recorded 700,000+ Commander games overall, and this card-level play data comes from the Playgroup Live subset of that corpus.