Lier, Disciple of the Drowned
Showing 1v1 (duel) data only. 1v1 is a different format from multiplayer Commander, so these numbers are not comparable.
Lier, Disciple of the Drowned
Final zone distribution
85 instancesCommanders that played this card
in tracked games-
1
Shiko and Narset, Unified
40 decks
-
2
Vivi Ornitier
13 decks
-
3
Fire Lord Azula
8 decks
-
4
Gandalf, Party Guest
8 decks
-
5
Elsha, Threefold Master
4 decks
-
6
Eluge, the Shoreless Sea
4 decks
-
7
Lord of the Nazgûl
4 decks
-
8
Storm, Force of Nature
4 decks
-
9
Flubs, the Fool
3 decks
-
10
Galazeth Prismari
3 decks
The "good card" funnel
322 brought · 193 playersOnce cast, 66% of this card is still on the battlefield at game end. This reflects how often it survives removal, not just whether it's a permanent.
Players who cast this card win 31% of the time (n=36) , vs 24% when it never left the library (n=172).
When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 29% (n=26).
Read this as correlation, not as the card's contribution. Casting a card means you lived long enough to cast it, so this gap widens with mana value across every card we track.
Observed gap +6.6pp; 95% confidence interval -2.3pp to +15.5pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.