Live Play Data

Lotus Cobra

· Creature — Snake · Zendikar Rising (ZNR)

Live Inclusion

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Times Brought

698

Decks Running

345

Median Cast Turn

4.0

Drawn → Played

75%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

75% of drawn Lotus Cobras are cast before the game ends, and games where it resolves show a +12.2 percentage-point win-rate lift over games where it stays in the library.

Lotus Cobra sits in 6% of the 5531 tracked Commander decks on Playgroup Live, showing up across 345 distinct lists. That's a niche card, not a universal staple, but its player base is deliberate: every top commander pairing leans on landfall synergy.

The most telling number is draw-to-play rate. 75% of drawn copies reach the battlefield, the highest signal that players want it in play the moment they find it. Median first cast lands on turn 4.0, with the mode at turn 2, matching its two-mana cost. Once it resolves, 62% of cast copies survive through the end of game, directionally strong for a two-mana creature in a removal-heavy format.

Win rate when cast sits at 37%, against 25% when the card never leaves the library. That +12.2 percentage-point gap is backed by a sample of 127 cast instances and 461 library instances, giving it enough weight to read as a consistent signal rather than noise. Green landfall commanders dominate the top-pairing list, with Bello, Hearthhull, and Aesi leading the count.

At a glance

6% of tracked Commander decks include Lotus Cobra
75% of drawn copies are cast before the game ends
T4.0 median first-cast turn, with a mode of turn 2
62% battlefield stickiness after a successful cast
+12.2pp win-rate lift in games where Lotus Cobra resolves vs. stays in the library
289 distinct players have brought Lotus Cobra to a tracked game

First-cast turn

n=134

28%

14%

11%

25%

T6-9

T10+

Median 4.0 P25 2 · P75 7 · max 12

On curve 34% (37 / 134 cast on T2) Cast same turn as drawn 46%

The "good card" funnel

699 brought · 289 players

Brought to game

699

Ever drawn

178

Reached battlefield

134

Still on board at game end

75%

Of 699 Lotus Cobras brought to games, 178 were drawn, 134 of those were cast, and 62% of cast copies remained on the battlefield through the end of the game.

≥ +4.0pp

Players who cast this card win 37% of the time (n=127) , vs 25% when it never left the library (n=461).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 40% (n=42) — about the same as leaving it in the library. Those players survived long enough to draw it, so the gap above is about the card resolving, not just about surviving.

Observed gap +12.2pp; 95% confidence interval +4.0pp to +20.5pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

198 instances

2.5%

Library

41.9%

Battlefield

29.8%

Graveyard

7.6%

Exile

Most Lotus Cobras end games on the battlefield or in the graveyard after combat, a sign the card stays relevant rather than getting stranded in the library as a 100-card singleton often would.

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

The top-commander list spans Gruul, Sultai, Simic, and mono-Green shells, confirming that any landfall or ramp commander with Green in its color identity is a natural home for Lotus Cobra.

Frequently Asked

How often is Lotus Cobra drawn in a Commander game?

Across 659 tracked multiplayer games, Lotus Cobra was drawn 25% of the time. That's consistent with expectations for a singleton in a 100-card deck. Of the 178 instances that reached a player's hand, 75% were cast before the game ended. The median delay between drawing and casting is 1 turn, and 46% of cast copies were played on the same turn they were drawn.

Does casting Lotus Cobra actually help you win?

In 127 participations where Lotus Cobra was cast, the win rate is 37%, normalized to a 4-player baseline. In 461 participations where it never left the library, the win rate is 25%. The +12.2 percentage-point delta has a lower confidence bound above zero in our current data, so what we see so far is a consistent positive signal. As always, better decks cast more cards, so correlation and causation aren't the same thing.

What turn does Lotus Cobra usually come down?

Median first cast is turn 4.0, and the mode is turn 2, exactly on curve for a two-mana card. The distribution has a meaningful cluster at turns 5 through 7, reflecting copies drawn in the mid-game. The p25 is turn 2 and p75 is turn 7, so the interquartile range spans quite a few turns. Only 34% of first casts land exactly on curve, mostly because many copies are drawn after turn 2 rather than held intentionally.

Which commanders play Lotus Cobra most often?

Bello, Bard of the Brambles leads with 23 decks in the tracked dataset, followed by Hearthhull, the Worldseed and Toph, the First Metalbender at 18 each, then Aesi, Tyrant of Gyre Strait and Flubs, the Fool at 15 each. The spread is broad: the top 10 commanders cover a wide range of Green-touching landfall and ramp strategies, from Sultai to Gruul to mono-Green. That range reflects how universally useful free mana from land drops is across different game plans.

Is Lotus Cobra legal in Commander?

Yes. Lotus Cobra is legal in Commander, Duel Commander, Legacy, Modern, Pioneer, Vintage, Historic, and Oathbreaker. It is not legal in Standard, Pauper, Pauper Commander, or Alchemy. It has never been banned in Commander, though its ceiling in landfall-heavy decks with fetch lands can be very high.

How concentrated is the Lotus Cobra data among a few players?

The data is well-spread. 289 distinct players have brought Lotus Cobra to a tracked game on Playgroup Live, and the single heaviest contributor accounts for just 5% of all instances. That's comfortably below the threshold where one player's habits could skew the numbers, so the stats reflect a broad sample of real playgroups rather than one prolific pilot.