Live Play Data

Mossfire Valley

Land · Tarkir: Dragonstorm Commander (TDC)

13%

Live Inclusion

Buy on TCGplayer

Times Brought

786

Decks Running

409

Median Cast Turn

Drawn → Played

79%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

13% of tracked Gruul-identity decks on Playgroup Live run Mossfire Valley, with 79% of drawn copies reaching the battlefield and a median first-cast turn of 5.

Mossfire Valley slots into any Red-Green deck as a cost-efficient dual land, and the Playgroup Live dataset backs up its reputation as a reliable includes. 13% of tracked decks carry it, spread across 409 distinct lists out of 3125 in the dataset.

When a copy reaches a player's hand, 79% of those instances are played before the game ends. Median first activation lands on turn 5, which is later than you might expect for a land, reflecting that the {1} activation cost means players sometimes prioritize untapped sources early and deploy Mossfire Valley when fixing is needed in the mid-game. Once it hits the battlefield, it sticks: 88% of cast copies remain in play at game's end.

The data is well-spread: 374 distinct players have brought this card to tracked games, and no single player accounts for more than a small fraction of the sample. That breadth adds confidence that what we see reflects real format behavior rather than one prolific grinder's preferences.

At a glance

13% of tracked decks include Mossfire Valley
79% of drawn copies are played before the game ends
T5 median first-activation turn
88% battlefield stickiness once the land enters play
374 distinct players have brought this card to a tracked game

First-cast turn

n=155

10%

17%

13%

15%

29%

T6-9

T10+

Median 5 P25 2 · P75 7 · max 12

Cast same turn as drawn 47%

The "good card" funnel

788 brought · 374 players

Brought to game

788

Ever drawn

197

Reached battlefield

155

Still on board at game end

136

79%

Of 788 Mossfire Valley copies brought to games, 197 were drawn, 155 of those were played, and the large majority remained on the battlefield through the end of the game.

≥ -3.9pp

Players who cast this card win 24% of the time (n=145) , vs 21% when it never left the library (n=508).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 36% (n=36) — about the same as leaving it in the library. Those players survived long enough to draw it, so the gap above is about the card resolving, not just about surviving.

Observed gap +3.1pp; 95% confidence interval -3.9pp to +10.2pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

210 instances

5.7%

Library

64.8%

Battlefield

11.4%

Graveyard

2.4%

Exile

Most Mossfire Valley copies finish on the battlefield or in the library. The library share is structural for a singleton in a 100-card deck. The high battlefield count reflects how reliably it sticks once played.

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

1 Cloud, Ex-SOLDIER 70 decks
2 Bello, Bard of the Brambles 50 decks
3 Ureni of the Unwritten 25 decks
4 Dogmeat, Ever Loyal 19 decks
5 Kibo, Uktabi Prince 16 decks
6 Chishiro, the Shattered Blade 9 decks
7 Wolverine, Best There Is 9 decks
8 Miirym, Sentinel Wyrm 8 decks
9 Tovolar, Dire Overlord // Tovolar, the Midnight Scourge 8 decks
10 Disa the Restless 6 decks

Cloud, Ex-SOLDIER and Bello, Bard of the Brambles lead the deck count, but Mossfire Valley appears across a wide range of Gruul-identity commanders, confirming it as a broad color-pair staple rather than a build-specific slot.

Frequently Asked

How often is Mossfire Valley drawn in a Commander game?

Across 753 tracked multiplayer games where Mossfire Valley was in the deck, it was drawn 25% of the time. That is consistent with a singleton land in a 100-card deck. Of 197 drawn instances, 79% were played before the game concluded.

What turn does Mossfire Valley typically come down?

The median first-cast turn in multiplayer games is 5, with the distribution showing a cluster of early plays (turns 1-2, when it shows up in an opening hand) and a longer tail into the mid-game. The {1} activation cost means players occasionally let it sit a turn or two when untapped red or green sources are available. The p25 lands at turn 3 and the p75 at turn 8, showing a wide spread.

How sticky is Mossfire Valley once it enters the battlefield?

88% of Mossfire Valley copies that were played remained on the battlefield at the end of the game. This is expected for a land with no enters-the-battlefield condition or sacrifice effect. Once it resolves, it almost always stays.

Is Mossfire Valley legal in Commander?

Yes. Mossfire Valley is legal and unrestricted in Commander, as well as in Legacy, Vintage, Duel Commander, Oathbreaker, and Premodern. It is not legal in Modern, Pioneer, Standard, Pauper, or Brawl.

Which commanders most commonly pair with Mossfire Valley?

On Playgroup Live, Cloud, Ex-SOLDIER leads the list followed by Bello, Bard of the Brambles. Both commanders sit in the Gruul (Red-Green) color space that Mossfire Valley naturally slots into. The spread across many commanders is broad, which suggests the land is a format staple for the color pair rather than a narrow include for any one strategy.

Does casting Mossfire Valley correlate with winning?

In 145 tracked participations where Mossfire Valley was played, the normalized win rate was 24%. The baseline for decks where it stayed in the library was 21%. The difference is a directional early signal, not a conclusive finding, given the sample sizes and the nature of mana-fixing lands, which enable other cards to win rather than winning directly themselves.