Live Play Data

Outcaster Trailblazer

· Creature — Human Druid · Outlaws of Thunder Junction (OTJ)

Live Inclusion

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Times Brought

822

Decks Running

350

Median Cast Turn

6.0

Drawn → Played

73%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

First-cast turn

n=158

15%

12%

15%

46%

T6-9

T10+

Median 6.0 P25 4 · P75 7 · max 12

On curve 20% (24 / 158 cast on T3) Cast same turn as drawn 38%

The "good card" funnel

822 brought · 316 players

Brought to game

822

Ever drawn

217

Reached battlefield

158

Still on board at game end

Once cast, 53% of this card is still on the battlefield at game end. This reflects how often it survives removal, not just whether it's a permanent.

≥ +1.8pp

Players who cast this card win 37% of the time (n=156) , vs 28% when it never left the library (n=541).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 20% (n=56).

Read this as correlation, not as the card's contribution. Casting a card means you lived long enough to cast it, so this gap widens with mana value across every card we track.

Observed gap +9.7pp; 95% confidence interval +1.8pp to +17.6pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

238 instances

2.5%

Library

35.3%

Battlefield

37.0%

Graveyard

7.6%

Exile

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

1 Eshki, Temur's Roar 44 decks
2 Radagast of Rhosgobel 31 decks
3 The Muckslinger Gang 24 decks
4 Ghalta, Primal Hunger 22 decks
5 Zilortha, Strength Incarnate 14 decks
6 Goreclaw, Terror of Qal Sisma 12 decks
7 Ashling, the Limitless 9 decks
8 Slinza, the Spiked Stampede 9 decks
9 Beorn the Fierce 8 decks
10 Miirym, Sentinel Wyrm 8 decks

Card text

Outcaster Trailblazer

Creature — Human Druid

When this creature enters, add one mana of any color. Whenever another creature you control with power 4 or greater enters, draw a card. Plot {2}

(You may pay {2}

and exile this card from your hand. Cast it as a sorcery on a later turn without paying its mana cost. Plot only as a sorcery.)

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Outlaws of Thunder Junction (OTJ) · Rare · Illustrated by Denys Tsiperko

Frequently Asked

Why isn't there more data on this card?

Playgroup Live collects per-card gameplay data from real Commander games. Play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games, and the full charts need a sample of at least 25 observed games that is not dominated by a single pilot. Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.

How is Playgroup Live card data collected?

Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting. Playgroup has recorded 780,000+ Commander games overall, and this card-level play data comes from the Playgroup Live seats playing virtual cards, a subset of that corpus.