Primary Research
Showing 1v1 (duel) data only. 1v1 is a different format from multiplayer Commander, so these numbers are not comparable.
Primary Research
Final zone distribution
60 instancesCommanders that played this card
in tracked games-
1
Quintorius, History Chaser
113 decks
-
2
Ghen, Arcanum Weaver
2 decks
-
3
Baron Bertram Graywater
1 decks
-
4
Brinelin, the Moon Kraken
1 decks
-
5
Cecil, Dark Knight // Cecil, Redeemed Paladin
1 decks
-
6
Celes, Rune Knight
1 decks
-
7
Daredevil, Man Without Fear
1 decks
-
8
Elas il-Kor, Sadistic Pilgrim
1 decks
-
9
Excava, the Risen Past
1 decks
-
10
Joshua, Phoenix's Dominant // Phoenix, Warden of Fire
1 decks
The "good card" funnel
245 brought · 122 playersOnce cast, 86% of this card is still on the battlefield at game end. This reflects how often it survives removal, not just whether it's a permanent.
Players who cast this card win 26% of the time (n=21) , vs 28% when it never left the library (n=138).
When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 23% (n=15).
Read this as correlation, not as the card's contribution. Casting a card means you lived long enough to cast it, so this gap widens with mana value across every card we track.
Observed gap -1.9pp; 95% confidence interval -13.6pp to +9.8pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.