Live Play Data

Raphael, the Nightwatcher

· Legendary Creature — Mutant Ninja Turtle · Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (TMT)

Live Inclusion

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Times Brought

203

Decks Running

Median Cast Turn

7.0

Drawn → Played

46%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

First-cast turn

n=26

15%

19%

46%

T6-9

19%

T10+

Median 7.0 P25 5 · P75 9 · max 15

On curve 15% (4 / 26 cast on T4) Cast same turn as drawn 32%

The "good card" funnel

203 brought · 68 players

Brought to game

203

Ever drawn

Reached battlefield

Still on board at game end

Once cast, 54% of this card is still on the battlefield at game end. This reflects how often it survives removal, not just whether it's a permanent.

≥ -8.1pp

Players who cast this card win 41% of the time (n=25) , vs 28% when it never left the library (n=116).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 18% (n=29).

Read this as correlation, not as the card's contribution. Casting a card means you lived long enough to cast it, so this gap widens with mana value across every card we track.

Observed gap +12.8pp; 95% confidence interval -8.1pp to +33.7pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

67 instances

1.5%

Library

20.9%

Battlefield

31.3%

Graveyard

6.0%

Exile

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

Card text

Raphael, the Nightwatcher

Legendary Creature — Mutant Ninja Turtle

Sneak

(You may cast this spell for {1}

if you also return an unblocked attacker you control to hand during the declare blockers step. He enters tapped and attacking.) Attacking creatures you control have double strike.

2 / 3

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (TMT) · Rare · Illustrated by Greg Staples

Frequently Asked

Why isn't there more data on this card?

Playgroup Live collects per-card gameplay data from real Commander games. Play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games, and the full charts need a sample of at least 25 observed games that is not dominated by a single pilot. Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.

How is Playgroup Live card data collected?

Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting. Playgroup has recorded 670,000+ Commander games overall, and this card-level play data comes from the Playgroup Live subset of that corpus.