Live Play Data

Rogue's Passage

Land · Secrets of Strixhaven Commander (SOC)

23%

Live Inclusion

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Times Brought

1780

Decks Running

1084

Median Cast Turn

5.0

Drawn → Played

77%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

Rogue's Passage appears in 23% of tracked Commander decks, and 77% of drawn copies are played before the game ends, with a median first activation on turn 5.0.

Rogue's Passage slots into nearly one in four tracked Commander decks on Playgroup Live. At 23% inclusion across 4738 distinct decks, it is one of the most-played colorless utility lands in the format, fitting seamlessly into any strategy that needs a reliable way to push a threat through for lethal.

When drawn, 77% of copies reach play before the game ends. That is a strong conversion rate for a land, which typically faces no mana cost barrier to entry. The median play turn sits at 5.0, reflecting that players often wait to draw it until the mid-game rather than picking it up in an opening hand. The data spans 628 unique players, and no single player accounts for more than a small slice of the total tracked games, giving the dataset solid breadth.

The commander spread is wide and colorless, which is exactly what you expect from a land with no color identity restrictions. Unblockable strategies, combat-centric commanders, and voltron builds all pull Rogue's Passage in equal measure, and the top-commander list reflects that diversity.

At a glance

23% of tracked Commander decks include Rogue's Passage
24% draw rate, consistent with a singleton in a 100-card deck
77% of drawn copies are played before the game ends
T5.0 median turn the passage first hits the battlefield
92% battlefield stickiness once the land enters play
628 unique players tracked, indicating broad cross-meta representation

First-cast turn

n=330

13%

16%

15%

36%

T6-9

T10+

Median 5.0 P25 3 · P75 7 · max 14

Cast same turn as drawn 42%

The "good card" funnel

1789 brought · 628 players

Brought to game

1789

Ever drawn

431

Reached battlefield

330

Still on board at game end

302

77%

Of 1789 copies brought to games, 431 were drawn, 330 of those were played, and 92% of landed copies survived to the end of the game.

≥ +1.4pp

Players who cast this card win 29% of the time (n=329) , vs 23% when it never left the library (n=1264).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 29% (n=97) — about the same as leaving it in the library. Those players survived long enough to draw it, so the gap above is about the card resolving, not just about surviving.

Observed gap +6.4pp; 95% confidence interval +1.4pp to +11.4pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

477 instances

2.5%

Library

63.3%

Battlefield

13.4%

Graveyard

4.4%

Exile

The majority of Rogue's Passage copies never leave the library, a structural result of 100-card singleton rather than a reflection on the card's power. Of those that do surface, most finish the game on the battlefield.

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

The commander list spans five or more color combinations, with Zimone, Infinite Analyst leading but the remainder spread across wildly different strategies. Rogue's Passage is a format-wide land, not a commander-specific tech piece.

Frequently Asked

How often is Rogue's Passage drawn in a Commander game?

Across 1321 tracked games where Rogue's Passage was in the deck, it was drawn 24% of the time. That figure is normal for a singleton in a 100-card deck. Of the 431 drawn copies on record, 77% were played before the game concluded.

What turn does Rogue's Passage typically enter the battlefield?

Median first-play turn is 5.0, with the middle 50% of plays falling between turns 3 and 7. The distribution stretches as late as turn 14, reflecting games where it is drawn deep. Unlike spells, lands have no mana cost, so late plays are almost always a function of when the card was drawn rather than a deliberate choice to hold it.

Which commanders most often run Rogue's Passage?

Zimone, Infinite Analyst leads the list by a significant margin, followed by Pantlaza, Sun-Favored and Hakbal of the Surging Soul. The spread covers Gruul, Simic, Esper, Mardu, and colorless commanders, confirming that Rogue's Passage is a format-wide inclusion rather than a niche synergy pick. Its lack of color identity is the key driver: any deck can run it.

Does casting Rogue's Passage correlate with winning?

The normalized win rate when Rogue's Passage is in play is 29%, versus 23% when it stays in the library. The delta of +6.4 percentage points is small, and both buckets are large enough to treat as directional signal rather than a causal claim. The passage is best understood as a role-player whose impact shows up in specific board states rather than a broad statistical lift.

Is Rogue's Passage legal in Commander?

Yes. Rogue's Passage is legal in Commander, Legacy, Modern, Pioneer, Vintage, Historic, Standard, Brawl, and most other formats tracked by Scryfall. It is not legal in Pauper or Pauper Commander due to rarity restrictions, nor in Old School or Premodern. In Commander its colorless identity means it is eligible for any deck.

How concentrated is the Rogue's Passage data among individual players?

The dataset is well-spread. 628 distinct players have brought Rogue's Passage to a tracked game on Playgroup Live, and the single heaviest contributor accounts for only 24% of all instances, well below the 15% threshold where concentration would raise a flag. This breadth makes the observed play patterns more representative of the broader Commander population.