Live Play Data

Rogue's Passage

Land · The Hobbit Eternal (HOC)

23%

Live Inclusion

Buy on TCGplayer

Times Brought

4710

Decks Running

2572

Median Cast Turn

Drawn → Played

78%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

Rogue's Passage sits in 23% of tracked Commander decks, and when a copy reaches a player's hand, 78% of the time it gets played before the game ends, median on turn 5.

Rogue's Passage occupies a quiet but consistent role across the Commander format. Found in 2572 of the 11359 distinct decks tracked on Playgroup Live, its 23% inclusion rate reflects a card that earns its slot in a wide range of strategies, not just dedicated voltron or evasion builds.

The clearest signal in the data is how reliably the card converts from hand to battlefield. Of copies that were drawn, 78% were played before the game ended. That is well above the median for situational utility lands. The median first-play turn is 5, consistent with a land that players drop as soon as they identify a creature worth pushing through. Once on the battlefield, it stays there: 92% stickiness reflects the format's limited land removal.

The win-rate lift when this card reaches the battlefield is a positive directional signal across a well-sampled dataset, suggesting the unblockable effect does meaningful work when it resolves. The commander distribution is broad, spanning combat-centric decks across nearly every color combination, which confirms the card's colorless identity is a genuine asset.

At a glance

23% of tracked Commander decks include Rogue's Passage
78% of drawn copies are played before the game ends
T5 median turn the land first hits the battlefield
92% battlefield stickiness once in play
1430 distinct players have brought it to a tracked game, with no single player exceeding 1% of all instances
30% win rate in games where Rogue's Passage was cast, vs 23% when it sat unseen in the library

First-cast turn

n=879

14%

15%

34%

T6-9

T10+

Median 5 P25 3 · P75 7 · max 14

Cast same turn as drawn 42%

The "good card" funnel

4718 brought · 1430 players

Brought to game

4718

Ever drawn

1124

Reached battlefield

879

Still on board at game end

806

78%

Of 4718 copies brought to games, 1124 were drawn, 879 of those were played to the battlefield, and the vast majority remained there through end of game at 92% stickiness.

≥ +4.5pp

Players who cast this card win 30% of the time (n=847) , vs 23% when it never left the library (n=3203).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 27% (n=230) — about the same as leaving it in the library. Those players survived long enough to draw it, so the gap above is about the card resolving, not just about surviving.

Observed gap +7.6pp; 95% confidence interval +4.5pp to +10.7pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

1245 instances

3.0%

Library

64.7%

Battlefield

13.1%

Graveyard

4.8%

Exile

The overwhelming majority of Rogue's Passage copies end a game on the battlefield, a direct result of Commander's scarce land removal, and a meaningful contrast to the library-heavy final-zone profiles typical of lower-impact singleton cards.

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

The top-commander list spans at least seven distinct color combinations, with no single archetype dominating, which reflects Rogue's Passage's colorless identity opening it to virtually every Commander deck.

Frequently Asked

How often is Rogue's Passage drawn in a Commander game?

Across 3491 tracked multiplayer Commander games where Rogue's Passage was in the deck, it was drawn 24% of the time. That is in line with expectations for a singleton land in a 100-card deck. Of 1124 drawn copies, 78% were played before the game concluded.

What turn does Rogue's Passage usually hit the table?

The median first-play turn is 5, with the middle half of casts landing between turns 3 and 7 (p25–p75). The distribution shows early plays in games where the card was in the opening hand, and a long tail into the midgame and beyond, which is typical for a utility land that waits for the right creature to appear.

Does playing Rogue's Passage actually improve your win rate?

In 847 participations where Rogue's Passage reached the battlefield, the normalized win rate was 30%. In 3203 participations where it never left the library, the rate was 23%. That is a +7.6 percentage-point gap. The sample is large enough to treat this as a meaningful directional signal rather than noise, though correlation with better-constructed decks cannot be fully ruled out.

Is Rogue's Passage banned anywhere?

Rogue's Passage is legal in Commander, Duel Commander, Legacy, Modern, Pioneer, Vintage, Standard, Historic, Timeless, Alchemy, Brawl, Oathbreaker, and Gladiator. It is not legal in Pauper or Pauper Commander (uncommon rarity) and is not available in Old School or Premodern formats.

Which commanders most commonly run Rogue's Passage?

Zimone, Infinite Analyst leads the tracked dataset, followed by Pantlaza, Sun-Favored and Terra, Herald of Hope. The spread is wide: the top ten commanders cover seven distinct color combinations, from colorless (Zhulodok, Void Gorger) to five-color-adjacent piles. That breadth is a direct consequence of Rogue's Passage being a colorless land with no color identity restriction.

How concentrated is the Rogue's Passage data across players?

The dataset is well-distributed. 1430 distinct players have brought the card to at least one tracked game, and the heaviest single contributor accounts for just 1% of all instances. That spread strengthens confidence that the observed patterns reflect broad community behavior rather than the habits of a single prolific player.