Live Play Data

Scalding Tarn

Land · Modern Horizons 2 (MH2)

10%

Live Inclusion

Buy on TCGplayer

Times Brought

3318

Decks Running

1679

Median Cast Turn

Drawn → Played

67%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

Scalding Tarn appears in 10% of tracked Commander decks on Playgroup Live. When drawn, 67% of copies are activated before the game ends, with a median first-activation turn of 4.

Scalding Tarn is one of the most widely-played fetchlands in Commander, showing up in 1679 of the 17176 distinct decks that have appeared in a tracked game on Playgroup Live. That 10% inclusion rate reflects a card that slots into any blue or red deck and every five-color strategy that needs reliable mana fixing.

When Scalding Tarn reaches a player's hand, 67% of those copies are activated before the game ends. Because the land sacrifices itself on activation, it never accumulates on the battlefield. Nearly all activations end in the graveyard, which is expected and by design. The median activation lands on turn 4, with the single most common turn being turn 1, reflecting how frequently it appears in opening hands and gets cracked immediately for a shock land.

Concentration is not a concern here. 970 distinct players have brought Scalding Tarn to a tracked game, and the single heaviest contributor accounts for just 2% of all instances. The data is well-spread, which lends weight to the directional signals in the win-rate numbers.

At a glance

10% of tracked Commander decks include Scalding Tarn
26% draw rate per game, consistent with a singleton in a 100-card deck
67% of drawn copies are activated before the game ends
T4 median first-activation turn
60% of drawn copies are activated the same turn they're drawn
970 distinct players have brought this card to a tracked game

First-cast turn

n=585

27%

11%

12%

10%

11%

25%

T6-9

T10+

Median 4 P25 1 · P75 6 · max 14

Cast same turn as drawn 60%

The "good card" funnel

3319 brought · 970 players

Brought to game

3319

Ever drawn

870

Reached battlefield

585

Still on board at game end

67%

Of 3319 Scalding Tarns brought to games, 870 were drawn and 585 of those were activated, with nearly all landing in the graveyard as expected for a sacrifice-to-activate land.

≥ +2.8pp

Players who cast this card win 34% of the time (n=519) , vs 27% when it never left the library (n=2006).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 35% (n=256) — about the same as leaving it in the library. Those players survived long enough to draw it, so the gap above is about the card resolving, not just about surviving.

Observed gap +6.9pp; 95% confidence interval +2.8pp to +11.0pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

985 instances

5.3%

Library

3.8%

Battlefield

63.4%

Graveyard

9.8%

Exile

Most Scalding Tarns end up in the graveyard after activation, a structural feature of all fetchlands. The fraction that remain in the library simply were never drawn.

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

1 The Ur-Dragon 60 decks
2 Sauron, the Dark Lord 36 decks
3 Vivi Ornitier 26 decks
4 Flubs, the Fool 23 decks
5 Fire Lord Azula 22 decks
6 Esika, God of the Tree // The Prismatic Bridge 21 decks
7 Ghyrson Starn, Kelermorph 17 decks
8 Kefka, Court Mage // Kefka, Ruler of Ruin 17 decks
9 Nekusar, the Mindrazer 17 decks
10 Tony Stark // The Invincible Iron Man 17 decks

The commander list skews toward blue-red and five-color strategies, consistent with Scalding Tarn's ability to fetch Islands and Mountains across any shell that needs those colors.

Card text

Scalding Tarn

Land

, Pay 1 life, Sacrifice this land: Search your library for an Island or Mountain card, put it onto the battlefield, then shuffle.

Modern Horizons 2 (MH2) · Rare · Illustrated by Philip Straub

Frequently Asked

How often is Scalding Tarn drawn in a Commander game?

Across 2535 tracked games where Scalding Tarn was in the deck, it was drawn 26% of the time. That is normal for any singleton in a 100-card deck. Of the 870 total instances that reached a hand, 67% were activated before the game concluded.

What turn does Scalding Tarn usually get activated?

The median first-activation turn is 4, but the distribution is notably front-loaded. Turn 1 is the single most common activation turn, driven by players keeping opening hands with Scalding Tarn and cracking it immediately for a shock land. The 25th percentile sits at turn 1 and the 75th at turn 6, so the spread is wide.

Why does Scalding Tarn almost never appear on the battlefield at game end?

Scalding Tarn sacrifices itself as part of its activation cost. Once used, it goes to the graveyard rather than staying in play. That is working exactly as intended. The low battlefield-stickiness number is structural to all fetchlands, not a sign of interaction or removal.

Is Scalding Tarn legal in Commander?

Yes. Scalding Tarn is legal and unrestricted in Commander, as well as in Legacy, Modern, Vintage, and several other formats. It is banned in Historic and not legal in Pioneer or Standard. The card's colorless color identity means it fits into any Commander deck regardless of the commander's colors.

Which commanders most commonly run Scalding Tarn?

The top commander by raw deck count in the Playgroup Live dataset is The Ur-Dragon, a five-color commander that benefits from broad mana fixing. Blue-red commanders like Vivi Ornitier and Sauron, the Dark Lord also appear near the top of the list. The common thread is access to blue or red, the two colors Scalding Tarn can fetch.

Does casting Scalding Tarn correlate with winning?

Win rate when the land is activated sits at 34% across 519 participations, compared to 27% when it stays in the library, a delta of +6.9 percentage points. Both sample sizes are large, but fetchland win-rate deltas are structurally hard to interpret. Activating a fetchland is a proxy for drawing it, which is itself a proxy for being in a well-built deck. Treat this as a directional signal rather than proof that Scalding Tarn wins games by itself.