Scalding Tarn
Showing 1v1 (duel) data only. 1v1 is a different format from multiplayer Commander, so these numbers are not comparable.
Scalding Tarn
Final zone distribution
562 instancesCommanders that played this card
in tracked games-
1
The Ur-Dragon
56 decks
-
2
Sauron, the Dark Lord
32 decks
-
3
Vivi Ornitier
31 decks
-
4
Nekusar, the Mindrazer
18 decks
-
5
Flubs, the Fool
17 decks
-
6
Esika, God of the Tree // The Prismatic Bridge
16 decks
-
7
Kinnan, Bonder Prodigy
16 decks
-
8
Tony Stark // The Invincible Iron Man
16 decks
-
9
Etali, Primal Conqueror // Etali, Primal Sickness
15 decks
-
10
Fire Lord Azula
15 decks
The "good card" funnel
2492 brought · 759 playersOnce cast, 10% of this card is still on the battlefield at game end. This reflects how often it survives removal, not just whether it's a permanent.
Players who cast this card win 27% of the time (n=314) , vs 25% when it never left the library (n=1472).
When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 27% (n=92).
Read this as correlation, not as the card's contribution. Casting a card means you lived long enough to cast it, so this gap widens with mana value across every card we track.
Observed gap +2.6pp; 95% confidence interval -0.4pp to +5.6pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.