Sensei's Divining Top
80% of drawn Sensei's Divining Tops are cast before the game ends, and the median first cast lands on turn 4.0 across 1469 tracked multiplayer Commander games on Playgroup Live.
Sensei's Divining Top converts at an unusually high rate: 80% of drawn copies reach the battlefield, with a median first cast on turn 4.0. Players are not sitting on this card once they find it.
The dataset spans 1469 tracked multiplayer games. The card sits in 802 of 19725 distinct decks, giving an inclusion rate of 4%. That modest headline share reflects the Top's real footprint: it fits any color identity, but players running it tend to be deliberate about its slot. The 581 unique players who brought it to tracked games are spread evenly, with no single contributor representing an outsized portion of the data, which strengthens the directional signals we can draw from it.
A 1-mana artifact with no color requirement, the Top has a long reputation as one of the best card-selection pieces ever printed. It is banned in Legacy and Duel Commander. In multiplayer Commander it remains legal and widely respected, especially in artifact-matters and topdeck-manipulation strategies.
- 4% of tracked Commander decks include Sensei's Divining Top
- 80% of drawn copies are cast before the game ends
- T4.0 median first-cast turn across multiplayer games
- 52% battlefield stickiness once the Top resolves
- 34% normalized win rate in games where the Top was cast
- 581 unique players have brought this card to a tracked game
First-cast turn
n=324The "good card" funnel
1607 brought · 581 playersOf 1607 copies brought to multiplayer games, 403 were drawn, 324 of those were cast, and just under half of resolved copies were still on the battlefield when the game ended.
Players who cast this card win 34% of the time (n=304) , vs 24% when it never left the library (n=1022).
When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 38% (n=68) — about the same as leaving it in the library. Those players survived long enough to draw it, so the gap above is about the card resolving, not just about surviving.
Observed gap +9.4pp; 95% confidence interval +3.9pp to +14.9pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.
Final zone distribution
439 instancesMany copies end in the library by design, since the Top's own tap ability puts it back on top. The graveyard and exile counts reflect genuine removal pressure, not misuse.
Commanders that played this card
in tracked games- 1 Zhulodok, Void Gorger 25 decks
- 2 Molecule Man 23 decks
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3
Yuriko, the Tiger's Shadow
22 decks
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4
Flubs, the Fool
18 decks
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5
Lorehold, the Historian
18 decks
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6
Aminatou, Veil Piercer
17 decks
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7
Urza, Lord High Artificer
16 decks
- 8 Ultron, Artificial Malevolence 15 decks
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9
Oloro, Ageless Ascetic
14 decks
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10
K'rrik, Son of Yawgmoth
12 decks
The list spans at least five different color identities, consistent with a colorless artifact that fits any archetype seeking topdeck control.