Solemn Simulacrum
10% of tracked Commander decks run Solemn Simulacrum. When drawn, it reaches the battlefield 65% of the time, with a median first-cast turn of 5.
Solemn Simulacrum sits in 10% of the 4852 Commander decks tracked on Playgroup Live, appearing in 497 distinct lists. Its colorless identity makes it a genuine format-wide card: the top-commander list spans Izzet, Rakdos, Mardu, Grixis, and even colorless shells.
The card's value proposition is structural. A 4-mana 2/2 that ramps a basic land on entry and replaces itself on death offers two separate triggers to extract value from. That design shows up in the stickiness number: 32% of cast copies end the game on the battlefield, which is low for an artifact creature and reflects how often opponents choose to remove it, trade into it, or sacrifice it deliberately to draw the card. Most tracked copies end their game in the graveyard or in hand, not in play.
The draw-to-play figure, 65%, reflects how often a drawn Simulacrum is cast before the game ends. Median cast turn is 5, consistent with a 4-mana spell drawn from the opening hand or picked up in the early-to-mid game. The data comes from 367 distinct players with a single-player cap of 3% of all instances, so concentration risk is minimal and the early signal is well-spread.
- 10% of tracked Commander decks include Solemn Simulacrum
- 65% of drawn copies are cast before the game ends
- T5 median first-cast turn, matching its 4-mana cost
- 32% battlefield stickiness once cast, reflecting how often it trades or triggers its death draw
- 367 distinct players have brought this card to a tracked game
- 35% of casts landed exactly on curve at turn 4
First-cast turn
n=133The "good card" funnel
756 brought · 367 playersOf 756 Solemn Simulacrums brought to games, 205 were drawn, 133 were cast, and only 32% of those cast copies ended the game on the battlefield.
Players who cast this card win 32% of the time (n=133) , vs 26% when it never left the library (n=502).
When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 24% (n=68) — about the same as leaving it in the library. Those players survived long enough to draw it, so the gap above is about the card resolving, not just about surviving.
Observed gap +6.4pp; 95% confidence interval -1.9pp to +14.7pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.
Final zone distribution
221 instancesThe graveyard is the most common final zone for a cast Simulacrum, which makes sense: opponents remove it to deny the death trigger, and pilots sacrifice it deliberately in the right builds.
Commanders that played this card
in tracked games-
1
Rootha, Mastering the Moment
17 decks
-
2
Terra, Herald of Hope
13 decks
-
3
Valgavoth, Harrower of Souls
13 decks
-
4
Zinnia, Valley's Voice
12 decks
-
5
Henzie "Toolbox" Torre
11 decks
-
6
T'Challa, the Black Panther
9 decks
-
7
Saheeli, Radiant Creator
8 decks
-
8
Toph, the First Metalbender
7 decks
-
9
Davros, Dalek Creator
6 decks
-
10
Mendicant Core, Guidelight
6 decks
The commander list spans five distinct color pairs and includes colorless commanders, consistent with Solemn Simulacrum's format-wide reach rather than concentration in any single archetype.