Live Play Data

Swan Song

· Instant · Edge of Eternities Commander (EOC)

18%

Live Inclusion

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Times Brought

1059

Decks Running

526

Median Cast Turn

7.0

Drawn → Played

51%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

18% of tracked Commander decks run Swan Song, and when a copy is drawn, it reaches the stack 51% of the time, with a median first-cast turn of 7.0.

Swan Song sits in 18% of the tracked Commander decks on Playgroup Live, appearing in 526 of the 2939 distinct decks that have played a recorded game. For a one-mana counterspell with a narrow range of legal targets, that penetration is a direct reflection of how much blue players value cheap interaction.

The draw-to-play rate is 51%. That means roughly one in two drawn copies reaches the stack before the game ends. Instants sit in hand waiting for the right moment, and some games simply end before a relevant enchantment, instant, or sorcery hits the table. Median first-cast turn is 7.0, well after the card's 1-mana cost would allow, which tells you Swan Song is being held as reactive ammunition rather than slammed at the first opportunity. The hand-to-cast data backs that up: players hold it an average of 2.2 turns after drawing it before firing.

The commander spread is broad. No single commander commands a runaway share of Swan Song decks, and 365 distinct players have brought it to a tracked game. That breadth signals genuine format-wide adoption across blue strategies, not a niche inclusion in one archetype.

At a glance

18% of tracked Commander decks include Swan Song
26% draw rate per participation, expected for a singleton in a 100-card deck
51% of drawn copies reached the stack before game end
T7.0 median first-cast turn, reflecting reactive holding patterns
365 distinct players have brought Swan Song to a tracked game
138 total casts recorded across all tracked games

First-cast turn

n=138

11%

13%

54%

T6-9

15%

T10+

Median 7.0 P25 5 · P75 9 · max 15

On curve 1% (2 / 138 cast on T1) Cast same turn as drawn 23%

The "good card" funnel

1061 brought · 365 players

Brought to game

1061

Ever drawn

272

Reached battlefield

138

Still on board at game end

51%

Of 1061 Swan Songs brought to games, 272 were drawn, 138 of those reached the stack, and the card resolved to the graveyard in the vast majority of cases, as expected for a one-shot instant.

≥ -0.5pp

Players who cast this card win 31% of the time (n=137) , vs 24% when it never left the library (n=726).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 32% (n=134) — about the same as leaving it in the library. Those players survived long enough to draw it, so the gap above is about the card resolving, not just about surviving.

Observed gap +6.9pp; 95% confidence interval -0.5pp to +14.3pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

305 instances

4.3%

Library

3.6%

Battlefield

44.3%

Graveyard

7.9%

Exile

Most Swan Song copies end in the graveyard after resolving or in hand at game end, exactly what you expect from a reactive instant that either fires or never finds a target.

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

No single commander dominates the Swan Song list; the top entries each appear in 8 decks, a sign that blue players broadly include it regardless of archetype.

Frequently Asked

How often is Swan Song drawn in a Commander game?

Across 855 tracked games where Swan Song was in the deck, it was drawn 26% of the time. That is a normal rate for a singleton in a 100-card deck. Of those 272 drawn copies, 51% were cast before the game concluded. The remaining drawn copies either found no valid target or the game ended first.

What turn does Swan Song typically get cast?

Median first-cast turn is 7.0, with the middle 50% of casts falling between turns 5 and 8. Despite costing only one blue mana, players rarely cast it on turn 1. The hand-to-cast data shows an average of 2.2 turns between drawing the card and casting it, and only 23% of casts happen on the same turn the card is drawn. Swan Song is a reactive tool held for the right target.

Does casting Swan Song correlate with winning?

In 137 participations where Swan Song was cast, the normalized win rate was 31%. In 726 participations where it stayed in the library, the rate was 24%. The delta is +6.9 percentage points. Both sample buckets are reasonably sized, but Playgroup Live's dataset is still growing. Treat this as a directional early signal rather than a definitive verdict.

Is Swan Song legal in Commander?

Yes. Swan Song is legal and unrestricted in Commander, as well as in Legacy, Modern, Pioneer, Vintage, Historic, Duel Commander, and several other formats. It is not legal in Standard, Pauper, or Pauper Commander. Check the legalities panel for the current status across all formats.

Why does Swan Song see such wide Commander play despite its narrow targeting?

One mana is the lowest possible cost for a hard counter, and in Commander that efficiency is premium. The trade-off is real: Swan Song cannot counter creatures or artifacts, and it gifts the opponent a 2/2 flying Bird. Players accept that downside because stopping a combo piece, a sweeper, or a game-winning enchantment for a single blue mana is almost always worth a 2/2 token. The 18% inclusion rate across tracked decks reflects how consistently blue pilots make that judgment call.

How concentrated is Swan Song in the tracked dataset?

Swan Song's data comes from 365 distinct players, and the single heaviest contributor accounts for 4% of all tracked instances. That is well below the 30% threshold where concentration becomes a data quality concern. The spread across commanders is also wide, with the top commander slot held at only 8 decks. These are early-signal numbers from a growing dataset, but the diversity is a genuine strength of what we have so far.