Live Play Data

Thancred Waters

· Legendary Creature — Human Warrior · Final Fantasy Commander (FIC)

Live Inclusion

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Times Brought

337

Decks Running

170

Median Cast Turn

8.5

Drawn → Played

49%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

First-cast turn

n=50

12%

50%

T6-9

32%

T10+

Median 8.5 P25 7 · P75 10 · max 16

On curve 18% (6 / 50 cast on T5) Cast same turn as drawn 33%

The "good card" funnel

337 brought · 168 players

Brought to game

337

Ever drawn

101

Reached battlefield

Still on board at game end

Once cast, 43% of this card is still on the battlefield at game end. This reflects how often it survives removal, not just whether it's a permanent.

≥ -14.3pp

Players who cast this card win 19% of the time (n=40) , vs 20% when it never left the library (n=193).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 15% (n=44).

Read this as correlation, not as the card's contribution. Casting a card means you lived long enough to cast it, so this gap widens with mana value across every card we track.

Observed gap -1.2pp; 95% confidence interval -14.3pp to +11.9pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

104 instances

2.9%

Library

20.2%

Battlefield

28.8%

Graveyard

6.7%

Exile

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

1 Y'shtola, Night's Blessed 149 decks
2 Serah Farron // Crystallized Serah 4 decks
3 Alphinaud Leveilleur 2 decks
4 Venat, Heart of Hydaelyn // Hydaelyn, the Mothercrystal 2 decks
5 Arna Kennerüd, Skycaptain 1 decks
6 Atla Palani, Nest Tender 1 decks
7 Cloud, Ex-SOLDIER 1 decks
8 Cloud, Midgar Mercenary 1 decks
9 Cloud, Planet's Champion 1 decks
10 Eriette of the Charmed Apple 1 decks

Card text

Thancred Waters

Legendary Creature — Human Warrior

Flash Royal Guard — When Thancred Waters enters, another target legendary permanent you control gains indestructible for as long as you control Thancred Waters. Whenever you cast a noncreature spell, Thancred Waters gains indestructible until end of turn.

3 / 5

Final Fantasy Commander (FIC) · Rare · Illustrated by Wisnu Tan

Frequently Asked

Why isn't there more data on this card?

Playgroup Live collects per-card gameplay data from real Commander games. Play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games, and the full charts need a sample of at least 25 observed games that is not dominated by a single pilot. Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.

How is Playgroup Live card data collected?

Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting. Playgroup has recorded 720,000+ Commander games overall, and this card-level play data comes from the Playgroup Live seats playing virtual cards, a subset of that corpus.