The Water Crystal
Showing 1v1 (duel) data only. 1v1 is a different format from multiplayer Commander, so these numbers are not comparable.
The Water Crystal
Final zone distribution
105 instancesCommanders that played this card
in tracked games-
1
Hope Estheim
29 decks
-
2
The Wise Mothman
21 decks
-
3
Captain N'ghathrod
20 decks
-
4
The Mindskinner
16 decks
-
5
Homer, the Hermit
14 decks
-
6
Bruvac the Grandiloquent
9 decks
-
7
Umbris, Fear Manifest
8 decks
-
8
Phenax, God of Deception
6 decks
-
9
Vnwxt, Verbose Host
6 decks
-
10
Whtz, the Bibliophile
6 decks
The "good card" funnel
436 brought · 219 playersOnce cast, 83% of this card is still on the battlefield at game end. This reflects how often it survives removal, not just whether it's a permanent.
Players who cast this card win 22% of the time (n=52) , vs 24% when it never left the library (n=236).
When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 25% (n=21).
Read this as correlation, not as the card's contribution. Casting a card means you lived long enough to cast it, so this gap widens with mana value across every card we track.
Observed gap -2.3pp; 95% confidence interval -9.9pp to +5.2pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.