Live Play Data

Toxic Deluge

· Sorcery · Marvel Super Heroes Commander (MSC)

18%

Live Inclusion

Buy on TCGplayer

Times Brought

1195

Decks Running

679

Median Cast Turn

7.0

Drawn → Played

55%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

18% of tracked Commander decks in black run Toxic Deluge, and when it lands, it resolves on a median turn of 7.0, spread across 487 distinct players with no single contributor above 3% of the data.

Toxic Deluge sits in 18% of the 3738 Commander decks tracked on Playgroup Live, making it one of the most-played black sorceries in the dataset. That footprint spans 487 unique players, and no single contributor accounts for more than 2% of the tracked instances, giving the numbers unusually broad grounding for a format this size.

The card's draw-to-play rate is 55%. That means roughly half of drawn copies reach the stack before the game ends. The gap reflects both timing pressure and the classic Commander dynamic: a boardwipe held for the right moment sometimes never finds it. Median first cast lands on turn 7.0, skewed late because players deliberately wait for the board state that justifies paying life for a sweeper.

Because Toxic Deluge is a sorcery, it resolves immediately to the graveyard. The relevant retention question is whether the game state improved after it resolved, not whether the card "stuck." On Playgroup Live's early signal, the cast win-rate sits at 26%, a directional positive against the baseline of decks where it never emerged from the library.

At a glance

18% of tracked Commander decks include Toxic Deluge
T7.0 median first-cast turn, reflecting deliberate timing by pilots
55% of drawn copies were cast before the game ended
26% draw rate, consistent with a singleton in a 100-card deck
487 distinct players in the dataset, with no single contributor above 3%

First-cast turn

n=172

16%

50%

T6-9

17%

T10+

Median 7.0 P25 5 · P75 8 · max 19

On curve 8% (11 / 172 cast on T3) Cast same turn as drawn 30%

The "good card" funnel

1197 brought · 487 players

Brought to game

1197

Ever drawn

310

Reached battlefield

172

Still on board at game end

55%

Of 1197 Toxic Deluges brought to games, 310 were drawn, and 172 of those were cast, a draw-to-play conversion that reflects both deliberate timing and games that ended before pilots found the right moment.

≥ -6.9pp

Players who cast this card win 26% of the time (n=170) , vs 27% when it never left the library (n=796).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 30% (n=135) — about the same as leaving it in the library. Those players survived long enough to draw it, so the gap above is about the card resolving, not just about surviving.

Observed gap -0.2pp; 95% confidence interval -6.9pp to +6.4pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

356 instances

1.1%

Library

2.8%

Battlefield

54.8%

Graveyard

11.2%

Exile

Nearly all Toxic Deluge copies end in the graveyard after resolving, which is expected for a sorcery. The small hand bucket represents copies drawn but never cast before the game ended.

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

1 Dina, Essence Brewer 55 decks
2 Doctor Doom, King of Latveria 45 decks
3 Frodo, Adventurous Hobbit 19 decks
4 Y'shtola, Night's Blessed 17 decks
5 Oloro, Ageless Ascetic 11 decks
6 Sheoldred, the Apocalypse 11 decks
7 Jin Sakai, Ghost of Tsushima 10 decks
8 K'rrik, Son of Yawgmoth 9 decks
9 Valgavoth, Harrower of Souls 9 decks
10 Loki, the Deceiver 8 decks

The commander list spans mono-black, Grixis, Dimir, Abzan, and Orzhov builds, showing Toxic Deluge slots cleanly into any black shell rather than clustering in one archetype.

Frequently Asked

How often is Toxic Deluge drawn in a Commander game?

Across 1072 tracked games where Toxic Deluge was in the deck, it was drawn 26% of the time. That figure is typical for a singleton in a 100-card deck. Of the 310 instances that reached a player's hand, 55% were cast before the game concluded. The remainder were held and either never found the right moment or the game ended first.

What turn does Toxic Deluge usually get cast?

Median first cast is turn 7.0, with the interquartile range spanning turns 5 through 8. The distribution reflects how the card is used: players hold it until a specific board state justifies the life payment, so early casts are rare. Only a handful of instances landed on turn 1 or 3. The long tail extends to turn 19 in the dataset.

Does casting Toxic Deluge actually help you win?

The cast win-rate on Playgroup Live is 26% across 170 observations, compared to 27% for participations where it stayed in the library across 796 observations. That gap is a small positive directional signal, but the confidence interval includes zero. Treat this as early signal rather than a settled conclusion. The card's reputation as a premier black sweeper rests more on its design efficiency than on this sample.

Is Toxic Deluge banned in Commander?

No. Toxic Deluge is legal in Commander and has never appeared on the Commander ban list. It is also legal in Legacy, Modern, Vintage, Historic, and several other sanctioned formats. It is not legal in Pioneer, Standard, Pauper, or Pauper Commander.

Why do players wait so long to cast Toxic Deluge?

Toxic Deluge requires paying X life as an additional cost, and the -X/-X effect hits all creatures including your own. Casting it too early wastes the life payment on a thin board and kills your own threats. Pilots typically hold it for a mid-to-late-game moment when opponents have built wide or tall boards and the life cost is justified by the swing in board state. The median turn 7.0 and a same-turn cast rate of 30% both confirm that players rarely slam it the turn they draw it.

How concentrated is the Toxic Deluge data across players?

487 distinct players have brought Toxic Deluge to a tracked game on Playgroup Live. The heaviest single contributor accounts for only 2% of all instances, well below the 15% threshold that would raise concentration concerns. The data is genuinely broad for a platform of this size, which adds confidence that the inclusion and timing numbers reflect the wider Commander population rather than any single player's habits.