Live Play Data

Baleful Strix

· Artifact Creature — Bird · Outlaws of Thunder Junction Commander (OTC)

12%

Live Inclusion

Buy on TCGplayer

Times Brought

733

Decks Running

433

Median Cast Turn

Drawn → Played

79%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

12% of tracked Commander decks run Baleful Strix. When drawn, 79% of copies get cast, with a median first-cast turn of 5.

Baleful Strix shows up in 12% of the 3490 distinct Commander decks tracked on Playgroup Live, appearing in 433 lists. For a two-color, format-restricted creature, that is a consistent signal of broad adoption across Dimir and its three-color extensions.

The draw-to-play rate sits at 79%. That means roughly one in four drawn copies does not reach the battlefield before the game ends. Given Baleful Strix's 2-mana cost and immediate card replacement on entry, the gap is almost entirely a late-draw timing effect rather than players choosing to hold it. The median first-cast turn is 5, with a mode of turn 2, confirming players cast it early when they have it.

Battlefield stickiness is relatively low at 38%, which is expected for a deathtouch blocker: opponents frequently trade into it, use removal, or sacrifice effects consume it. The enter-the-battlefield draw trigger fires regardless, so the value is front-loaded. Decks in the Dimir color pair and its wedge/shard neighbors treat it as a cheap, value-generating speed bump that replaces itself the moment it arrives.

At a glance

12% of tracked Commander decks include Baleful Strix
79% of drawn copies are cast before the game ends
T5 median first-cast turn, with turn 2 the most common single turn
38% battlefield stickiness, low by design for a deathtouch blocker
380 distinct players have brought Baleful Strix to a tracked game
27% draw rate, consistent with a singleton in a 100-card deck

First-cast turn

n=157

20%

10%

13%

34%

T6-9

13%

T10+

Median 5 P25 3 · P75 8 · max 19

On curve 22% (31 / 157 cast on T2) Cast same turn as drawn 45%

The "good card" funnel

734 brought · 380 players

Brought to game

734

Ever drawn

199

Reached battlefield

157

Still on board at game end

79%

Of 734 Baleful Strix copies brought to games, 199 were drawn, 157 of those were cast, and a minority stayed on the battlefield through end of game, reflecting how often opponents trade into a deathtouch blocker.

≥ -5.5pp

Players who cast this card win 22% of the time (n=151) , vs 20% when it never left the library (n=460).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 28% (n=38) — about the same as leaving it in the library. Those players survived long enough to draw it, so the gap above is about the card resolving, not just about surviving.

Observed gap +1.3pp; 95% confidence interval -5.5pp to +8.1pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

216 instances

2.3%

Library

27.3%

Battlefield

43.1%

Graveyard

11.1%

Exile

Most Baleful Strix copies end up in the graveyard after trading in combat or being removed, which fits the card's role as a deathtouch speed bump that already drew a card on entry.

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

The top-commander list spans Dimir, Esper, Sultai, and Yore-Tiller color combinations, showing Baleful Strix spreads across all commanders that can access Blue and Black rather than clustering around a single archetype.

Frequently Asked

How often is Baleful Strix drawn in a Commander game?

Across 712 tracked multiplayer Commander games where Baleful Strix was in the deck, it was drawn 27% of the time. That rate is normal for a singleton in a 100-card deck. Of 199 instances that reached a hand, 79% were cast before the game concluded. The remainder are largely late draws where the game ended before the player could act.

What turn does Baleful Strix usually hit the battlefield?

The median first-cast turn is 5, and the most common single turn is turn 2. The distribution is wide: the interquartile range runs from turn 3 to turn 8, meaning copies drawn in the opening hand land very early while late draws can appear well into double-digit turns. The hand-to-cast median of 1 turn confirms players rarely sit on it once they draw it.

Why is Baleful Strix considered strong in Commander?

Three things stack on a 2-mana body: flying for evasion, deathtouch that discourages any attacker from trading in, and an unconditional draw-a-card trigger on entry. The card replaces itself immediately, so the floor is a cantrip and the ceiling is a repeatable blocker against any ground threat. In formats with larger creatures and commanders that attack repeatedly, a 1/1 deathtouch flier punches far above its mana cost as a deterrent.

Is Baleful Strix legal in Commander?

Yes. Baleful Strix is legal in Commander, Duel Commander, Legacy, Vintage, Historic, Timeless, Brawl, and Oathbreaker. It is not legal in Modern, Pioneer, Standard, or Pauper. Pauper Commander also excludes it given its rare printing. Its color identity of Blue and Black restricts which commanders can run it.

How concentrated is the Baleful Strix data across players?

The dataset is well spread. 380 distinct players have brought Baleful Strix to at least one tracked game, and the single heaviest contributor accounts for just 3% of all instances. That breadth makes the directional signals here more representative than data dominated by a single power user.

Does casting Baleful Strix improve your win rate?

The multiplayer data shows a negative cast-vs-library delta at this sample size, meaning the decks that draw and cast Baleful Strix are not winning at a higher rate than decks that never see it. However, the confidence interval crosses zero, so treat this as an early directional signal rather than a conclusion. Baleful Strix's value is primarily in tempo and card parity, effects that do not always translate cleanly into a win-rate lift on a small sample.