Case of the Locked Hothouse
Showing 1v1 (duel) data only. 1v1 is a different format from multiplayer Commander, so these numbers are not comparable.
Case of the Locked Hothouse
Final zone distribution
73 instancesCommanders that played this card
in tracked games-
1
Bello, Bard of the Brambles
18 decks
-
2
Flubs, the Fool
14 decks
-
3
Omnath, Locus of Creation
6 decks
-
4
Glarb, Calamity's Augur
5 decks
-
5
Grizzlegom, Hurloon Hero
5 decks
-
6
Aesi, Tyrant of Gyre Strait
4 decks
-
7
Child of Alara
4 decks
-
8
Azusa, Lost but Seeking
3 decks
-
9
Tannuk, Memorial Ensign
3 decks
-
10
The Wandering Minstrel
3 decks
The "good card" funnel
257 brought · 126 playersOnce cast, 90% of this card is still on the battlefield at game end. This reflects how often it survives removal, not just whether it's a permanent.
Players who cast this card win 31% of the time (n=35) , vs 22% when it never left the library (n=143).
When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 28% (n=16).
Read this as correlation, not as the card's contribution. Casting a card means you lived long enough to cast it, so this gap widens with mana value across every card we track.
Observed gap +9.2pp; 95% confidence interval +0.2pp to +18.2pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.