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Conspiracy Theorist card art
Live Play Data

Conspiracy Theorist

{1} {R} · Creature — Human Shaman · Secrets of Strixhaven Commander (SOC)
1%
Live Inclusion
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Times Brought
648
Decks Running
265
Median Cast Turn
6.0
Drawn → Played
64%
Format
Multiplayer 1v1

First-cast turn

n=114
2%
T1
12%
T2
9%
T3
16%
T4
11%
T5
42%
T6-9
9%
T10+
Median 6.0 P25 4 · P75 7 · max 13
On curve 14% (14 / 114 cast on T2) Cast same turn as drawn 48%

The "good card" funnel

648 brought · 249 players
Brought to game
648
Ever drawn
177
Reached battlefield
114
Still on board at game end
50

Once cast, 44% of this card is still on the battlefield at game end. This reflects how often it survives removal, not just whether it's a permanent.

≥ -10.2pp

Players who cast this card win 28% of the time (n=111) , vs 29% when it never left the library (n=407).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 39% (n=61).

Read this as correlation, not as the card's contribution. Casting a card means you lived long enough to cast it, so this gap widens with mana value across every card we track.

Observed gap -1.1pp; 95% confidence interval -10.2pp to +8.0pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

214 instances
2.8%
Library
23.4%
Battlefield
40.2%
Graveyard
17.3%
Exile

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games
Card text
Conspiracy Theorist card

Conspiracy Theorist

{1} {R}
Creature — Human Shaman
Whenever this creature attacks, you may pay {1} and discard a card. If you do, draw a card. Whenever you discard one or more nonland cards, you may exile one of them from your graveyard. If you do, you may cast it this turn.
2 / 2
Secrets of Strixhaven Commander (SOC) · Rare · Illustrated by Svetlin Velinov

Frequently Asked

Why isn't there more data on this card?
Playgroup Live collects per-card gameplay data from real Commander games. Play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games, and the full charts need a sample of at least 25 observed games that is not dominated by a single pilot. Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.
How is Playgroup Live card data collected?
Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting. Playgroup has recorded 780,000+ Commander games overall, and this card-level play data comes from the Playgroup Live seats playing virtual cards, a subset of that corpus.