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Conspiracy Theorist card art
Live Play Data

Conspiracy Theorist

{1} {R} · Creature — Human Shaman · Secrets of Strixhaven Commander (SOC)
1%
Live Inclusion
Buy on TCGplayer
Times Brought
571
Decks Running
223
Median Cast Turn
5
Drawn → Played
63%
Format
Multiplayer 1v1

First-cast turn

n=99
5%
T1
16%
T2
9%
T3
11%
T4
12%
T5
40%
T6-9
6%
T10+
Median 5 P25 3 · P75 7 · max 13
On curve 21% (16 / 99 cast on T2) Cast same turn as drawn 46%

The "good card" funnel

571 brought · 210 players
Brought to game
571
Ever drawn
156
Reached battlefield
99
Still on board at game end
43

Once cast, 43% of this card is still on the battlefield at game end. This reflects how often it survives removal, not just whether it's a permanent.

≥ -10.7pp

Players who cast this card win 30% of the time (n=93) , vs 31% when it never left the library (n=340).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 37% (n=55).

Read this as correlation, not as the card's contribution. Casting a card means you lived long enough to cast it, so this gap widens with mana value across every card we track.

Observed gap -0.5pp; 95% confidence interval -10.7pp to +9.7pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

191 instances
3.1%
Library
22.5%
Battlefield
39.3%
Graveyard
17.8%
Exile

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games
Card text
Conspiracy Theorist card

Conspiracy Theorist

{1} {R}
Creature — Human Shaman
Whenever this creature attacks, you may pay {1} and discard a card. If you do, draw a card. Whenever you discard one or more nonland cards, you may exile one of them from your graveyard. If you do, you may cast it this turn.
2 / 2
Secrets of Strixhaven Commander (SOC) · Rare · Illustrated by Svetlin Velinov

Frequently Asked

Why isn't there more data on this card?
Playgroup Live collects per-card gameplay data from real Commander games. Play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games, and the full charts need a sample of at least 25 observed games that is not dominated by a single pilot. Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.
How is Playgroup Live card data collected?
Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting. Playgroup has recorded 740,000+ Commander games overall, and this card-level play data comes from the Playgroup Live seats playing virtual cards, a subset of that corpus.