Live Play Data

Conspiracy Theorist

· Creature — Human Shaman · Secrets of Strixhaven Commander (SOC)

Live Inclusion

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Times Brought

192

Decks Running

Median Cast Turn

Drawn → Played

69%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

First-cast turn

n=45

16%

13%

11%

44%

T6-9

T10+

Median 5 P25 3 · P75 7 · max 13

On curve 18% (7 / 45 cast on T2) Cast same turn as drawn 49%

The "good card" funnel

192 brought · 92 players

Brought to game

192

Ever drawn

Reached battlefield

Still on board at game end

Once cast, 31% of this card is still on the battlefield at game end. This reflects how often it survives removal, not just whether it's a permanent.

≥ -16.2pp

Players who cast this card win 33% of the time (n=43) , vs 33% when it never left the library (n=109).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 48% (n=20).

Read this as correlation, not as the card's contribution. Casting a card means you lived long enough to cast it, so this gap widens with mana value across every card we track.

Observed gap -0.3pp; 95% confidence interval -16.2pp to +15.6pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

73 instances

4.1%

Library

19.2%

Battlefield

46.6%

Graveyard

16.4%

Exile

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

1 Quintorius, History Chaser 67 decks
2 Flubs, the Fool 5 decks
3 Faldorn, Dread Wolf Herald 3 decks
4 Asmoranomardicadaistinaculdacar 2 decks
5 Captain Howler, Sea Scourge 2 decks
6 Doctor Doom, King of Latveria 2 decks
7 Subira, Tulzidi Caravanner 2 decks
8 Ashling, Flame Dancer 1 decks
9 Balin, Loremaster 1 decks
10 Brallin, Skyshark Rider 1 decks

Card text

Conspiracy Theorist

Creature — Human Shaman

Whenever this creature attacks, you may pay {1}

and discard a card. If you do, draw a card. Whenever you discard one or more nonland cards, you may exile one of them from your graveyard. If you do, you may cast it this turn.

2 / 2

Secrets of Strixhaven Commander (SOC) · Rare · Illustrated by Svetlin Velinov

Frequently Asked

Why isn't there more data on this card?

Playgroup Live collects per-card gameplay data from real Commander games. Play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games, and the full charts need a sample of at least 25 observed games that is not dominated by a single pilot. Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.

How is Playgroup Live card data collected?

Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting. Playgroup has recorded 680,000+ Commander games overall, and this card-level play data comes from the Playgroup Live subset of that corpus.