Live Play Data

Cut a Deal

· Sorcery · Marvel Super Heroes Commander (MSC)

Live Inclusion

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Times Brought

691

Decks Running

365

Median Cast Turn

6.0

Drawn → Played

68%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

5% of tracked Commander decks run Cut a Deal, and when it's drawn it reaches the stack 68% of the time, with a median first cast on turn 6.0.

Cut a Deal sits in 5% of the 7801 Commander decks tracked on Playgroup Live. It is a niche inclusion, not a staple, but its player base is genuinely broad: 334 distinct players have brought it to a tracked game, and no single player accounts for more than a small fraction of those instances.

The card's design creates a real tension at the table. Each opponent draws first, which means casting it is a political act as much as a card-advantage play. That context shows up in the turn-pattern data: median first cast lands on turn 6.0, well past the opening development window, suggesting players hold it for moments when the extra cards for opponents carry the least risk. Of the 164 times it has been drawn in tracked games, 68% reached the stack before the game ended.

Because Cut a Deal is a sorcery it resolves immediately to the graveyard. Lifetime performance in the data leans directional on small samples, so read any win-rate figures as early signal rather than settled fact. The card is legal in Commander, Legacy, Vintage, and Oathbreaker, and is not on the Commander ban list.

At a glance

5% of tracked Commander decks include Cut a Deal
24% draw rate across tracked games, typical for a singleton in a 100-card deck
68% of drawn copies reached the stack before the game ended
T6.0 median first-cast turn, well into the mid-game
334 distinct players have brought this card to a tracked game, a well-spread sample

First-cast turn

n=112

10%

14%

45%

T6-9

20%

T10+

Median 6.0 P25 5 · P75 9 · max 16

On curve 12% (6 / 112 cast on T3) Cast same turn as drawn 35%

The "good card" funnel

691 brought · 334 players

Brought to game

691

Ever drawn

164

Reached battlefield

112

Still on board at game end

68%

Of 691 copies brought to games, 164 were drawn, 112 of those were cast, and nearly all resolved to the graveyard as expected for a sorcery.

≥ -13.3pp

Players who cast this card win 18% of the time (n=101) , vs 23% when it never left the library (n=422).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 28% (n=48) — about the same as leaving it in the library. Those players survived long enough to draw it, so the gap above is about the card resolving, not just about surviving.

Observed gap -5.4pp; 95% confidence interval -13.3pp to +2.5pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

181 instances

3.9%

Library

2.8%

Battlefield

65.2%

Graveyard

9.4%

Exile

The graveyard is the natural endpoint for a sorcery, and the data reflects that. Most copies that were actually cast ended there. The library figure is low because observed instances are the ones that moved, not the ones that sat quietly in an undrawn deck.

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

Y'shtola, Night's Blessed leads by a wide margin, but the long tail of commanders in the list shows Cut a Deal is not locked into a single archetype. It appears across mono-white, Jeskai, four-color, and partner pairings.

Frequently Asked

How often is Cut a Deal drawn in a Commander game?

Across 664 tracked games where the card was in the deck, it was drawn 24% of the time. That figure, 164 total drawn instances, is in line with what any singleton in a 100-card deck expects. Of those drawn copies, 68% were cast before the game concluded. The remainder reflects games that ended before the player found a clean window, not necessarily a deliberate choice to hold the card.

What turn does Cut a Deal usually get cast?

The median first-cast turn is 6.0, with the bulk of casts falling between turns 5 and 8. Only 12% of casts landed exactly on curve for a 3-mana spell, which is consistent with players storing the card and waiting for the right political moment rather than slamming it as soon as they have the mana. The same-turn cast rate is 35%, confirming many copies spend multiple turns in hand before being used.

Does casting Cut a Deal actually help you win?

The tracked data shows a cast-vs-library win-rate delta of -5.4 percentage points. With 101 cast observations, this is a directional signal rather than a statistically conclusive one. The sample size on the cast side is below the threshold where we'd call it settled, so treat this as early evidence to monitor as more games are tracked.

Which commanders run Cut a Deal most often?

Among tracked decks, Y'shtola, Night's Blessed leads with the most copies, followed by Zinnia, Valley's Voice and Mister Fantastic. The spread across the top-10 commanders is fairly wide, reflecting that Cut a Deal fits any white deck willing to give opponents cards in exchange for a net card-advantage swing.

Is Cut a Deal legal in the formats I play?

Cut a Deal is legal in Commander, Duel Commander, Legacy, Vintage, and Oathbreaker. It is not legal in Standard, Pioneer, Modern, Historic, Pauper, Brawl, or Alchemy. It is not on the Commander ban list.

How concentrated is the Cut a Deal data across players?

The data is well-spread. 334 distinct players have brought Cut a Deal to a tracked game on Playgroup Live, and the heaviest single contributor accounts for just 3% of all instances. That spread is a strength of the dataset: the numbers reflect a genuine cross-section of how the broader community uses this card, not the habits of one or two prolific players.