Ephemerate
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Instant
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Modern Horizons (MH1)
68% of drawn Ephemerates are cast before the game ends, with a median first-cast turn of 7.0, making this 1-mana instant one of the more reliably executed spells in the white Commander toolkit.
Ephemerate sits in 5% of tracked Commander decks on Playgroup Live, a niche pick by raw inclusion but one that punches well above its mana cost when it does appear. Of 234 times the card reached a player's hand, 68% resulted in a cast, a solid conversion rate for a reactive spell in a 100-card singleton format.
The median first cast lands on turn 7.0, well past the curve for a 1-mana spell. That gap is structural: Ephemerate is a reactive tool held for the right target and the right moment, not something slammed on curve. The rebound mechanic compounds its value, so players are selective about when they pull the trigger. Of 158 casts tracked across 893 games, the win rate when cast is 34%, against 26% when the card never left the library. Both buckets are well-sampled enough to treat that +8.2 percentage-point delta as a directional signal, though the confidence interval does cross zero, so read it with appropriate caution.
The commander spread tells the broader story. Ephemerate appears most heavily in blink-synergy shells led by commanders like Pantlaza, Sun-Favored, Brago, King Eternal, and Elesh Norn, Mother of Machines. It doubles as emergency protection and an engine piece, which explains why it surfaces across such a wide range of color identities despite being a mono-white card. Data comes from 436 distinct players, and no single player accounts for more than 25% of observations, so the spread here is genuinely broad.
- 5% of tracked Commander decks include Ephemerate
- 68% of drawn copies were cast before the game ended
- T7.0 median first-cast turn, reflecting deliberate timing rather than early ramp
- 34% win rate in games where Ephemerate resolved, across a well-sampled pool
- 436 distinct players contributed Ephemerate data, a well-spread sample
- +8.2pp directional win-rate lift when cast versus left in library
First-cast turn
n=158The "good card" funnel
925 brought · 436 playersOf 925 Ephemerates brought to tracked games, 234 were drawn, 158 of those were cast, and conversion held steady as a reliable reactive piece across all stages.
Players who cast this card win 34% of the time (n=147) , vs 26% when it never left the library (n=574).
When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 29% (n=71) — about the same as leaving it in the library. Those players survived long enough to draw it, so the gap above is about the card resolving, not just about surviving.
Observed gap +8.2pp; 95% confidence interval +0.3pp to +16.2pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.
Final zone distribution
263 instancesMost Ephemerate instances resolve to the graveyard or exile after rebounding, with a small fraction staying in hand or landing on the battlefield, consistent with an instant that leaves play the moment it resolves.
Commanders that played this card
in tracked games-
1
Pantlaza, Sun-Favored
41 decks
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2
Brago, King Eternal
19 decks
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3
Elesh Norn, Mother of Machines
17 decks
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4
Hei Bai, Forest Guardian
16 decks
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5
Niko, Light of Hope
15 decks
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6
The Sentry, Golden Guardian
15 decks
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7
Mister Negative
14 decks
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8
Thanos, the Mad Titan
14 decks
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9
Nick Fury, Agent of S.H.I.E.L.D.
13 decks
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10
Atraxa, Grand Unifier
12 decks
Pantlaza, Brago, and Elesh Norn lead the list, all commanders that reward repeated enter-the-battlefield triggers, confirming Ephemerate's home is firmly in the blink-synergy corner of the meta.
Ephemerate