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Harbinger of the Seas card art
Live Play Data

Harbinger of the Seas

{1} {U} {U} · Creature — Merfolk Wizard · Modern Horizons 3 (MH3)
1%
Live Inclusion
Buy on TCGplayer
Times Brought
317
Decks Running
142
Median Cast Turn
6.0
Drawn → Played
63%
Format
Multiplayer 1v1

First-cast turn

n=48
2%
T1
6%
T2
10%
T3
6%
T4
21%
T5
44%
T6-9
10%
T10+
Median 6.0 P25 5 · P75 8 · max 18
On curve 19% (5 / 48 cast on T3) Cast same turn as drawn 47%

The "good card" funnel

317 brought · 134 players
Brought to game
317
Ever drawn
76
Reached battlefield
48
Still on board at game end
23

Once cast, 48% of this card is still on the battlefield at game end. This reflects how often it survives removal, not just whether it's a permanent.

≥ +4.2pp

Players who cast this card win 36% of the time (n=46) , vs 19% when it never left the library (n=193).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 52% (n=23).

Read this as correlation, not as the card's contribution. Casting a card means you lived long enough to cast it, so this gap widens with mana value across every card we track.

Observed gap +17.6pp; 95% confidence interval +4.2pp to +30.9pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

84 instances
1.2%
Library
27.4%
Battlefield
33.3%
Graveyard
8.3%
Exile

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games
Card text
Harbinger of the Seas card

Harbinger of the Seas

{1} {U} {U}
Creature — Merfolk Wizard
Nonbasic lands are Islands.
2 / 2
Modern Horizons 3 (MH3) · Rare · Illustrated by Winona Nelson

Frequently Asked

Why isn't there more data on this card?
Playgroup Live collects per-card gameplay data from real Commander games. Play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games, and the full charts need a sample of at least 25 observed games that is not dominated by a single pilot. Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.
How is Playgroup Live card data collected?
Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting. Playgroup has recorded 760,000+ Commander games overall, and this card-level play data comes from the Playgroup Live seats playing virtual cards, a subset of that corpus.