Card Preview

Harbinger of the Seas

· Creature — Merfolk Wizard · Modern Horizons 3 (MH3)

Buy on TCGplayer

Times Brought

105

Decks Running

In Decks

—

Decklist Inclusion

—

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

Showing 1v1 (duel) data only. 1v1 is a different format from multiplayer Commander, so these numbers are not comparable.

Card text

Harbinger of the Seas

Creature — Merfolk Wizard

Nonbasic lands are Islands.

2 / 2

Modern Horizons 3 (MH3) · Rare · Illustrated by Winona Nelson

Final zone distribution

35 instances

31.4%

Battlefield

34.3%

Graveyard

5.7%

Exile

28.6%

Hand

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

1 Hakbal of the Surging Soul 17 decks
2 Spider-Man 2099 3 decks
3 Urza, Lord High Artificer 3 decks
4 Eluge, the Shoreless Sea 2 decks
5 Namor the Sub-Mariner 2 decks
6 Talrand, Sky Summoner 2 decks
7 Aang, Swift Savior // Aang and La, Ocean's Fury 1 decks
8 Admiral Brass, Unsinkable 1 decks
9 Aesi, Tyrant of Gyre Strait 1 decks
10 Alela, Artful Provocateur 1 decks

The "good card" funnel

105 brought · 55 players

Brought to game

105

Ever drawn

Reached battlefield

Still on board at game end

Once cast, 55% of this card is still on the battlefield at game end. This reflects how often it survives removal, not just whether it's a permanent.

≥ -7.9pp

Players who cast this card win 25% of the time (n=15) , vs 19% when it never left the library (n=51).

Observed gap +6.4pp; 95% confidence interval -7.9pp to +20.6pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

First-cast turn

n=20

15%

20%

10%

30%

T6-9

15%

T10+

Median 5.0 P25 4 · P75 9 · max 15

On curve 25% (3 / 20 cast on T3) Cast same turn as drawn 50%

20 of 100 times cast 20%

Full analysis unlocks as more games are tracked. Stats refresh nightly.

Frequently Asked

Why isn't there more data on this card?

Playgroup Live collects per-card gameplay data from real Commander games. Basic play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games; the full deep-dive page needs a larger, more diverse sample (at least 300 tracked games played by 10 or more different pilots, with no single pilot over 40 percent of the copies). Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.

How is Playgroup Live card data collected?

Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting. Playgroup has recorded 660,000+ Commander games overall, and this card-level play data comes from the Playgroup Live subset of that corpus.