Negate
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Instant
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Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (TMT)
Negate sits in 16% of tracked Commander decks on Playgroup Live, is drawn 24% of the time, and reaches the stack on a median turn of 7.0. When it resolves, teams that cast it win at 29%.
Negate shows up in 16% of the 7624 Commander decks that have played a tracked game on Playgroup Live. That makes it one of the more common reactive pieces in blue, even in a format crowded with counterspell options at every price point. Across 2063 tracked games, it has been brought to the table 2328 times, drawn 567 times, and cast 290 times.
The draw-to-play rate sits at 51%. Negate is an instant held in hand until the right moment arrives, so a drawn copy that goes uncast frequently reflects a game that ended before the right target appeared, not a player choosing to pass. Median first cast lands on turn 7.0, consistent with a card that waits for the mid-game threat rather than being deployed on curve. The data here spans 907 distinct players, with no single contributor accounting for more than a small slice of instances, which gives the numbers reasonable breadth for a dataset of this size.
Blue is the natural home: every top commander in the list carries blue in its color identity. Negate slots cleanly into control, tempo, and combo shells that need cheap insurance against noncreature threats. It is legal in Commander, Duel Commander, Pauper Commander, and every other major sanctioned format.
- 16% of tracked Commander decks include Negate
- 24% draw rate across tracked games
- 51% of drawn Negates reach the stack before the game ends
- T7.0 median first-cast turn, deep into the mid-game
- 907 distinct players have brought Negate to a tracked game
First-cast turn
n=290The "good card" funnel
2328 brought · 907 playersOf 2328 Negates brought to games, 567 were drawn, 290 of those were cast, and nearly all resolved to the graveyard as expected for an instant spell.
Players who cast this card win 29% of the time (n=276) , vs 21% when it never left the library (n=1521).
When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 25% (n=249) — about the same as leaving it in the library. Those players survived long enough to draw it, so the gap above is about the card resolving, not just about surviving.
Observed gap +7.9pp; 95% confidence interval +2.7pp to +13.2pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.
Final zone distribution
641 instancesMost Negate instances finish in the graveyard after resolving, with the library accounting for a small fraction of final zones. That graveyard-heavy profile is exactly what you expect from a high-volume instant that gets cast and forgotten rather than sitting stranded in a deck.
Commanders that played this card
in tracked games-
1
Nekusar, the Mindrazer
23 decks
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2
Fire Lord Azula
20 decks
-
3
Ghyrson Starn, Kelermorph
17 decks
-
4
Satoru Umezawa
15 decks
-
5
Sauron, the Dark Lord
15 decks
-
6
Vivi Ornitier
14 decks
-
7
Grand Arbiter Augustin IV
13 decks
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8
Zndrsplt, Eye of Wisdom
13 decks
-
9
Tony Stark // The Invincible Iron Man
12 decks
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10
Atraxa, Praetors' Voice
11 decks
The commander list spans at least ten distinct names across several color identities, all sharing blue. No single commander dominates, which suggests Negate is a broad blue staple rather than the pet card of one specific archetype.