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Thieving Skydiver

· Creature — Merfolk Rogue · Outlaws of Thunder Junction Commander (OTC)

Decklist Inclusion

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Times Brought

161

Decks Running

108

In Decks

843

Decklist Inclusion

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

Final zone distribution

49 instances

6.1%

Library

24.5%

Battlefield

30.6%

Graveyard

4.1%

Exile

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

The "good card" funnel

161 brought · 100 players

Brought to game

161

Ever drawn

Reached battlefield

Still on board at game end

Once cast, 55% of this card is still on the battlefield at game end. This reflects how often it survives removal, not just whether it's a permanent.

≥ -22.2pp

Players who cast this card win 14% of the time (n=19) , vs 21% when it never left the library (n=93).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 32% (n=21) — about the same as leaving it in the library. Those players survived long enough to draw it, so the gap above is about the card resolving, not just about surviving.

Observed gap -6.2pp; 95% confidence interval -22.2pp to +9.8pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

First-cast turn

n=22

14%

50%

T6-9

18%

T10+

Median 7.0 P25 5 · P75 9 · max 14

On curve 0% (0 / 22 cast on T2) Cast same turn as drawn 27%

22 of 100 times cast 22%

Full analysis unlocks as more games are tracked. Stats refresh nightly.

Frequently Asked

Why isn't there more data on this card?

Playgroup Live collects per-card gameplay data from real Commander games. Basic play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games; the full deep-dive page needs a larger, more diverse sample (at least 300 tracked games played by 10 or more different pilots, with no single pilot over 40 percent of the copies). Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.

How is Playgroup Live card data collected?

Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting. Playgroup has recorded 640,000+ Commander games overall, and this card-level play data comes from the Playgroup Live subset of that corpus.