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Live Play Data

Three Steps Ahead

· Instant · Outlaws of Thunder Junction (OTJ)

Live Inclusion

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Times Brought

945

Decks Running

459

Median Cast Turn

6.0

Drawn → Played

60%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

First-cast turn

n=154

13%

15%

56%

T6-9

13%

T10+

Median 6.0 P25 5 · P75 8 · max 14

On curve 0% (0 / 154 cast on T1) Cast same turn as drawn 30%

The "good card" funnel

946 brought · 389 players

Brought to game

946

Ever drawn

257

Reached battlefield

154

Still on board at game end

≥ +5.8pp

Players who cast this card win 34% of the time (n=140) , vs 21% when it never left the library (n=564).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 37% (n=94).

Read this as correlation, not as the card's contribution. Casting a card means you lived long enough to cast it, so this gap widens with mana value across every card we track.

Observed gap +13.7pp; 95% confidence interval +5.8pp to +21.7pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

305 instances

4.6%

Library

2.0%

Battlefield

57.4%

Graveyard

9.8%

Exile

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

Card text

Three Steps Ahead

Instant

Spree (Choose one or more additional costs.) + {1}

— Counter target spell. + {3}

— Create a token that's a copy of target artifact or creature you control. + {2}

— Draw two cards, then discard a card.

Outlaws of Thunder Junction (OTJ) · Rare · Illustrated by Francisco Miyara

Frequently Asked

Why isn't there more data on this card?

Playgroup Live collects per-card gameplay data from real Commander games. Play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games, and the full charts need a sample of at least 25 observed games that is not dominated by a single pilot. Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.

How is Playgroup Live card data collected?

Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting. Playgroup has recorded 690,000+ Commander games overall, and this card-level play data comes from the Playgroup Live subset of that corpus.