Tenuous Truce
Showing 1v1 (duel) data only. 1v1 is a different format from multiplayer Commander, so these numbers are not comparable.
Tenuous Truce
Final zone distribution
58 instancesCommanders that played this card
in tracked games-
1
Ms. Bumbleflower
69 decks
-
2
Gluntch, the Bestower
6 decks
-
3
Eriette of the Charmed Apple
5 decks
-
4
Queen Marchesa
4 decks
-
5
Whtz, the Bibliophile
4 decks
-
6
Mr. Foxglove
3 decks
-
7
The Second Doctor
3 decks
-
8
Captain Rex Nebula
2 decks
-
9
Iroh, Tea Master
2 decks
-
10
Killian, Ink Duelist
2 decks
The "good card" funnel
258 brought · 130 playersOnce cast, 19% of this card is still on the battlefield at game end. This reflects how often it survives removal, not just whether it's a permanent.
Players who cast this card win 28% of the time (n=18) , vs 20% when it never left the library (n=135).
When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 25% (n=16).
Read this as correlation, not as the card's contribution. Casting a card means you lived long enough to cast it, so this gap widens with mana value across every card we track.
Observed gap +7.8pp; 95% confidence interval -4.7pp to +20.3pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.